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上海快速更新同化数值预报系统(SMS-WARR)的近地面风速预报检验评估
薛文博1, 余晖2, 汤胜茗2, 黄伟2, 姜文东3,3, 周象贤4, 陆逸2
(1.中国气象科学研究院;2.中国气象局上海台风研究所;3.国网浙江省电力有限公司;4.国网浙江省电力有限公司电力科学研究院)
Verification on Surface Wind Speed Forecast of Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System (SMS-WARR)
Xue Wenbo1, Yu Hui2, Tang Shengming2, Huang Wei2, Jiang Wendong3, Zhou Xiangxian4, Lu Yi2
(1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences;2.Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA;3.State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co. LTD;4.State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co. LTD. Research Institute)
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投稿时间:2019-09-23    修订日期:2020-10-19
中文摘要: 本文对上海快速更新同化数值预报系统(Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System,SMS-WARR)的10-m预报风速进行分级检验评估,在此基础上进一步研究了台风影响期间的风速预报误差特征,并探讨了误差的可能成因。结果表明: SMS-WARR在各预报时效都存在对实测小于六级的风预报偏大,对六级及以上的风预报偏小的特点;随预报时效的增长,小于六级风的预报评分降低,六级及以上风的评分增大;预报风速与实测风速在5%~90%分位数之间的分布呈明显的线性相关。台风影响期间,SMS-WARR预报的强风区域与实际位置基本符合,但范围明显偏大, 预报偏差大值区主要集中在预报强风区域。些误差特征与模式冷、热启动方案的设置、模式对台风快速增强的预报能力较弱等有关。
Abstract:In order to evaluate the wind speed forecast ability of Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System (SMS-WARR), the 10-m wind has been divided into three levels to analyze the error characteristics and corresponding causes of formation,especially during the period of typhoon influence. The results show that the SMS-WARR model overestimates the wind weaker than 6 grade and underestimates the wind stronger than or equal to 6 grade in each lead time; the wind speed forecast score will decrease in the wind weaker than 6 grade and increase in the wind stronger than or equal to 6 grade with lead time;forecast and observational wind speed have similar distribution between 5%~90% quartiles. During the period of typhoon influence , the area of strong breeze(6 grade) is much larger than the area where the strong breeze was actually recorded. The area of large deviation is mainly distributed in the area of forecast strong breeze. These error characteristics is speculated to be related to the cold and hot starting of the system and the weak predictability of the wind field during the rapid intensification phase of typhoons.
文章编号:201909230346     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目(5211DS18002P);国家重点研发计划(2018YFB1501104);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2015CB452806);国家自然科学基金(41805088);上海市自然科学基金(18ZR1449100);
引用文本:
薛文博,余晖,汤胜茗,黄伟,姜文东,周象贤,陆逸,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Xue Wenbo,Yu Hui,Tang Shengming,Huang Wei,Jiang Wendong,Zhou Xiangxian,Lu Yi,0.Verification on Surface Wind Speed Forecast of Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System (SMS-WARR)[J].Meteor Mon,():-.