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TRAMS 3.0台风模式版本的技术更新和评估结果
徐道生
(中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所)
Updates in TRAMS 3.0 model version and its verification on typhoon forecast
Xu Daosheng
(Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction. CMA Guangzhou,510000,China)
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投稿时间:2019-07-16    修订日期:2020-08-17
中文摘要: 在TRAMS(Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea)2.0业务版本台风模式的基础上,从模式分辨率、动力框架、物理过程三个方面进行技术改进,形成了TRAMS 3.0升级版本。对2017年的台风预报进行评估,结果表明3.0版本比2.0版本有明显改进,其中72 h的平均路径误差减少了13.6km(改进幅度为7%),强度预报误差减少了1.2hPa(改进幅度为10.5%)。另外对于高空气象要素的预报,3.0版本模式也比业务版本有全面的改进。对各项技术更新的效果分别进行测试,发现提高模式分辨率和更新对流参数化方案对新版本的南海台风预报的改进贡献最大。
Abstract:Based on the operational TRAMS (Tropical Region Assimilation Model for South China Sea) 2.0 version model, a series of technical updates were conducted, including model resolution, dynamical frame, physical process, and TRAMS 3.0 version model is formed. Verifications for the typhoons in 2017 showed that track errors and intensity errors were reduced significantly, the 72h mean track error was 7% decreased (about 13.6km), and the intensity was 10.5% decreased (about 1.2 hPa). The meteorological elements were also improved by the newly upgraded TRAMS model. Increasement of model resolution and revised cumulus scheme provided major contribution to forecast improvement in TRAMS 3.0 version.
文章编号:201907160281     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:广东省科技计划省直部门协同创新重点项目(21080208),国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506900),国家自然科学基金(41705089)
引用文本:
徐道生,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Xu Daosheng,0.Updates in TRAMS 3.0 model version and its verification on typhoon forecast[J].Meteor Mon,():-.