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涡旋追踪技术在浙江区域模式台风定位定强中的应用研究
余贞寿1, 冀春晓1, 张红蕾1, 段晶晶2
(1.浙江省气象科学研究所;2.浙江省宁波市气象台)
Research on Application of GFDL Vortex Tracker Technique in the Zhejiang Regional NWP models
yuzhenshou1, JI Chunxiao1, Zhang honglei1, Duan Jingjing2
(1.Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences;2.Ningbo Meteorological observatory)
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投稿时间:2019-03-11    修订日期:2020-08-11
中文摘要: 针对搜寻海平面气压最小值位置确定TC位置的方法(MSLP)应用于数值模式预报台风定位方法存在的不足,本文开展GFDL涡旋追踪技术(GVT)在本地化模式应用研究, GVT和MSLP、搜寻500hPa最大相对涡度值(VT500)和搜寻最小位势高度值(H500)等四种方法对四类不同路径台风定位定强分析结果表明:H500、VT500、MSLP方法定位路径均会出现不同程度的“锯齿”形不规则的摆动路径,尤其是VT500不规则摆动幅度最大,定位效果最差,GVT方法可以较好的修正“锯齿”形不规则的摆动,使得模式预报路径更接近实况,定位效果最好,在远离海岸线,H500、MSLP和GVT定位效果比较接近。从不同方法对台风中心最低气压定强误差可见,VT500方法误差最大,GVT方法误差最小,MSLP、H500方法误差介于VT500和GVT之间。四种方法对台风中心附近最大风速定强误差差别不大。2016-2018年业务应用评估结果表明:采用GVT技术建立的浙江台风定位定强系统(ZJTVTS)对浙江区域中尺度模式(ZJWARMS)和浙江快速更新同化预报系统(ZJWARRS)台风预报质量有改进作用。
Abstract:The most common tropical cyclone (TC) center identification method is searching for minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), which still has some shortcoming. In this paper, TC center identification method and intensity estimation method based on GFDL Vortex Tracker Technique (GVT) has been studied in regional numerical weather prediction model application. Detailed comparisons between GVT and three traditional TC center location and intensity estimation techniques, including MSLP, using maximum vorticity value at 500hPa (VT500), and using minimum geopotential height at 500hPa (H500) was made. Using H500, VT500 and MSLP methods to determined TC center location, there will be some degree of zigzag-shaped irregular swing path, especially using VT500 method. The VT500 method has largest irregular swing amplitude and the positioning effect is the worst. GVT method can better correct the zigzag-shaped swing path and makes the model prediction path closer to the observed one, and the positioning effect is the best. However, the H500, MSLP and GVT are relatively closely when the typhoon location is away from the coastline. The errors of the minimum pressure of TC center by these four methods show that the VT500 method has the largest error, the GVT method has the smallest error, and the MSLP and H500 methods’ error are between VT500 and GVT. The errors of maximum wind speed near the TC center by four methods show the error of the four methods is not much different. The operational application in 2016-2018 show that the Zhejiang Typhoon Vortex Tracker System (ZJTVTS) based on GVT technology can improve the prediction quality of Zhejiang WRF-ADAS Regional Model System (ZJWARMS) and Zhe-Jiang WRF-ADAS Rapid Refresh System (ZJWARRS).
文章编号:201903110098     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然基金面上项目(41675044)、浙江省气象科技计划项目(2013ZD01-6,2017ZD05)和中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题( 2018LASW-B05)共同资助
引用文本:
余贞寿,冀春晓,张红蕾,段晶晶,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
yuzhenshou,JI Chunxiao,Zhang honglei,Duan Jingjing,0.Research on Application of GFDL Vortex Tracker Technique in the Zhejiang Regional NWP models[J].Meteor Mon,():-.