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气候变化气候变化对水文循环的影响水文循环的影响
姜彤1, 孙赫敏2, 李修仓3, 苏布达3
(1.南京信息工程大学;2.北京市气象探测中心;3.国家气候中心)
Impacts of climate change on water cycle
姜彤1, Sun Hemin2, Li Xiucang3, Su Buda3
(1.Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology;2.Beijing Meteorological Observation Center;3.National Climate Centre)
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投稿时间:2020-02-13    修订日期:2020-02-28
中文摘要: 水文循环是地球上海洋、陆地和大气之间相互作用中最活跃且最重要的枢纽,受气候变化影响最为显著。本文回顾了气候变化对全球水文循环的影响,并对1960s以来中国降水、蒸发、地表径流及大气水汽含量等陆地水文循环要素变化进行了评估。气候变暖使得全球水文循环加强,观测数据表明自1970年以来,全球对流层和地表水汽含量呈现增加趋势,但由于监测网络在空间覆盖和时间响应的限制,热带水汽增加与环流减弱之间相互影响,使得气候变化对区域水文循环的影响不确定性较大。1960s以来,中国区域水文循环也呈现的明显的变化,大气水汽含量1960s-1970s呈现下降趋势,1980s后呈现上升的趋势;降水平均态虽然无明显变化但空间差异显著增加,实际蒸散发平均值微弱增加,空间差异增大,地表径流空间差异增大,某些流域呈现减少趋势;21世纪以来,由蒸散发再凝结形成的降水量增加,大气内循环活跃程度加大。
Abstract:Water cycle is the most active and important part in the interaction among ocean, land and atmosphere, which is significantly affected by climate change. This paper reviews the impact of climate change on global water cycle, and evaluates the changes of water cycle elements including atomospheric water vapor, precipitation, evapotranspiration and surface runoff and water vapor in China since the1960s. Climate warming has strengthened the global water cycle, showing that global near surface and tropospheric air specific humidity have increased since the 1970s. However, due to the insufficient observation, the trend of various variables in the water cycle still remains considerable uncertainty. Moreover, due to interaction between the increase of tropical water vapor and the weakening of the circulation, the influence of climate change on regional water cycle exists more uncertain. Obvious changes of regional water cycle in China has been found since 1960s. The atmospheric water vapor and its budget shows the decreasing for 1960s-1970s and increasing after 1980s. No obvious changes in total precipitation, but largely spartial difference of regional precipitation can be found in China. Average evapotranspiration slightly increases, and mean surface runoff decreases. Since the 21st century, the precipitation transformed from evapotranspiration has increased, and the internal water cycle is more active than before.
文章编号:202002130042     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:气候变化背景下中国东部极端降水的社会经济影响研究极端降水的社会经济影响研究
引用文本:
姜彤,孙赫敏,李修仓,苏布达,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
姜彤,Sun Hemin,Li Xiucang,Su Buda,0.Impacts of climate change on water cycle[J].Meteor Mon,():-.