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2019年汛期气候预测效果评述及降水预测先兆信号分析
丁婷, 韩荣青, 高辉
(中国气象局国家气候中心 北京 100081)
Overview of Climate Prediction of the Summer 2019 and the Precursory Signals
dingting, Han Rongqing, Gao Hui
(National Climate Center)
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投稿时间:2020-02-09    修订日期:2020-03-10
中文摘要: 2019年汛期降水呈南多北少分布,主要多雨区位于东北和江南等地。3月发布的预报中对江南、西南东部、东北东部、西北中部地区降水偏多和内蒙古中部及东北部的偏少均做了较好预测;5月发布的滚动预测将南方主要多雨中心南移,订正结果与实况更为一致。6月发布的盛夏预报及时加强了对东北地区降水趋势的订正,准确预测了东北地区降水明显偏多的特征。对南海夏季风、西南雨季、梅雨及华北雨季的季节进程预测也和实况一致。但2019年汛期降水预测也存在明显的不足之处。首先是对长江中下游沿江降水异常偏少预测错误。此外对东北地区多雨的范围和异常程度估计不足。最后,初步分析了2018/2019年冬季青藏高原积雪面积异常偏多、2018-2019年厄尔尼诺事件以及热带印度洋海温持续偏暖对长江中下游降水预测指示意义的失败,并和2018年外强迫信号及大气环流做了简单对比,指出汛期降水和传统影响因子不匹配、非对称的复杂性研究还需要深入开展。
Abstract:In summer 2019, precipitation in the south part of China was above normal, while below normal in the north part of China. Much more precipitation was found in Northeast China and the south of the Yangtze River. Above normal precipitation in the south of the Yangtze River, the east part of Southwest China, the east part of Northeast China, the central part of the Northwest China, and below normal precipitation in central and northeastern Inner Mongolia were well predicted in March. The updated forecast released in May predicted the main rainy centers of southern China to the south, and this forecast is more consistent with the observation. Forecast for July-August released in June modified the precipitation prediction for Northeast China, and well predicted the much more precipitation in this region. The forecasts on the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon, the rainy season in Southwest China, Meiyu, and the rainy season in North China were predicted well. However, there are deficiencies in the precipitation prediction in summer 2019. The prediction of precipitation anomaly along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was wrong. The range and the anomaly degree of above normal precipitation in Northeast China were underestimated. Finally, the paper preliminarily analyzes the failure of the snow area anomaly of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the El Nino event and the tropical Indian Ocean warming in winter 2018/2019 to indicate the precipitation anomaly in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The external-forcing factors and the associated atmospheric circulation between 2018 and 2019 are compared. It is pointed out that the research on the complexity of the mismatch and asymmetry between the summer precipitation and the traditional influencing factors needs to be further carried out.
文章编号:202002090036     中图分类号:P461    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1505603),公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306033)和中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-149)共同资助
引用文本:
丁婷,韩荣青,高辉,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
dingting,Han Rongqing,Gao Hui,0.Overview of Climate Prediction of the Summer 2019 and the Precursory Signals[J].Meteor Mon,():-.