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北京道面温度特征分析和统计预报研究
董颜
(北京市气象服务中心)
Characteristics of road surface temperature in Beijing and study of its statistic forecasting model
Dong Yan
(Beijing Meteorological Service Center)
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投稿时间:2018-11-07    修订日期:2020-03-12
中文摘要: 本文分析了2008-2016年北京市道面温度在冬夏两季、不同天气状况、不同道面站的日变化,再利用2012-2015年道面站温度与对应北京区域模式输出的气象要素之间的相关关系,以5个道面站为代表站筛选不同相关因子建立多个道面冬季最低温度和夏季最高温度的线性及非线性回归统计预测模型,择优对2016-2017年冬夏进行预测检验。结果表明:道面温度存在明显日变化,不同天气条件下道面温度与气温变化对比明显;道面温度与气温、辐射、日照时数相关较大;建立的预测模型中线性回归模型好于非线性回归模型,其预测结果与实况较为一致;夏季按天气类型建模预测准确度有所提升,在晴到多云状况下,模型预测冬季最低温度误差控制在±2℃内,夏季最高温度误差控制在±3℃左右,其他天气状况下误差增大,冬季预测模型好于夏季预测模型。
Abstract:An analysis of the inter-diurnal variation of road surface temperature in the different weather conditions for winter and summer in Beijing, based on the data of the 28 road stations from 2008 to 2016, is made and the corresponding forecasting models are constructed in this paper. First, the correlation coefficients between road surface temperature and the meteorological factors output by the Beijing regional model are investigated, on which the multiple linear and non-linear regression statistical forecasting models are built to predict the road minimum temperature in winter and the maximum temperature in summer, with the different correlative factors from the 5 representative road stations selected. Then the best forecasting models are chosen to make an assessment for winters and summers from 2016 to 2017. The results show that there exists a significant diurnal variation for the road surface temperature, suggesting that the road surface temperature is obviously different under the different kind of weather conditions. The road surface temperature is correlated with air temperature, atmospheric radiation, and sunshine duration. The prediction accuracy of the forecasting model using liner statistical regression is better than that of ones using non-linear regression. In addition, it is improved in terms of the prediction accuracy of summer forecasting models for the various weather conditions. Under the fair to cloudy condition, the error of forecasting models could be controlled within the ± 2℃ in winter and ±3℃ in summer, but worse under the other weather conditions. The models show a better forecast in terms of the minimum temperature in winter compared with the maximum temperature in summer.
文章编号:201811070486     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:科技部国家基础研究发展规划项目
引用文本:
董颜,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Dong Yan,0.Characteristics of road surface temperature in Beijing and study of its statistic forecasting model[J].Meteor Mon,():-.