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台风大风低矮房屋易损性及智能网格预报的应用
杨绚, 张立生, 杨琨, 王铸
(国家气象中心)
Typhoon Wind Vulnerability for a Typical Low-Rise Building and Application of Intelligent Grid Forecast
Yang Xuan, Zhang Lisheng, Yang Kun, Wang Zhu
(National Meteorological Centre)
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投稿时间:2019-04-28    修订日期:2020-02-11
中文摘要: 我国东南沿海是台风多发区,台风大风经常给沿海地区的建筑物造成破坏,低矮房屋是受台风影响最为严重的房屋类型之一。本文从建筑构件可靠性的角度,利用蒙特卡洛方法模拟典型双坡屋面小青瓦砖木结构的低矮房屋(以下简称为“低矮房屋”)不同构件对风速的易损性曲线,低矮房屋不同构件的大风易损性为:侧边>屋檐>迎风屋面>屋脊>侧边墙角>背风屋面。从而构建了台风大风对低矮房屋倒损概率模型,量化风灾对低矮房屋的风险。利用全球灯光数据(DMSP/OLS)对地面粗糙度进行分类,分析不同地面粗糙度低矮房屋易损性的差异。基于我国精细化智能网格预报产品,预估了2017年13号台风“天鸽”低矮房屋风险等级,并与实际灾情进行检验,结果表明,该模型的预估结果与实际灾情在广东中西部较为吻合,但在广东东部沿海地区产生了一定范围的空报,可能是智能网格风速预报产品在台风东侧风速偏大导致的,其预估结果的TS评分为0.28,空报率有0.62,漏报率0.48,该模型能够在一定程度上预估风灾对低矮房屋的倒损风险。
Abstract:Southeast China coastal regions are frequently hit by typhoon, , which often cause damage to buildings in coastal areas.. Low-rise buildings are one of the most severely affected by typhoon. In this paper, based on the reliability design of building structures, Monte-Carlo simulation method is used with a probabilistic framework to simulate the wind vulnerability on component of a typical double-sloping roofs with small blue-and-tile bricks (low-rise building). The wind vulnerability of different components of low buildings is as follows: side of roof > eaves > windward roof > roof ridge > wall corner > leeward roof. A probability model of typhoon wind damage to low-rise houses is constructed which can quantify the risk of wind disasters to low-rise buildings. The ground roughness is classified by using DMSP/OLS data, and the difference of the vulnerability of low-rise buildings with different ground roughness is analyzed. Based on the intelligent grid forecast, the risk of low-rise building induced by Hato, the 13th typhoon in 2017, is estimated. The results are consistent with the actual disaster in the central and western Guangdong. However, partial area of false prediction has been generated in the eastern coastal areas of Guangdong, which may be caused by excessive large of intelligent grid wind speed forecast products on the east side of typhoon Hato. The TS score of the estimated results is 0.28, the false alarm ratio is 0.62, and prediction omission is 0.48. This model can estimate the risk of wind damage to low-rise buildings to a certain extent.
文章编号:201904280182     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家气象中心预报员专项(Y201920)
引用文本:
杨绚,张立生,杨琨,王铸,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Yang Xuan,Zhang Lisheng,Yang Kun,Wang Zhu,0.Typhoon Wind Vulnerability for a Typical Low-Rise Building and Application of Intelligent Grid Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,():-.