###
DOI:
本文二维码信息
延伸期温度预报误差订正技术初探
尹姗1, 李勇1, 马杰1, 邓星2, 蔡芗宁1
(1.国家气象中心;2.龙源电力集团股份有限公司)
Preliminary Study on Bias Correction for the Extended-Range Temperature
YIN Shan1, LI Yong1, MA Jie1, DENG Xing2, CAI Xiangning1
(1.National Meteorological Center;2.China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited)
摘要
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 31次   下载 11
投稿时间:2019-04-22    修订日期:2020-02-05
中文摘要: 应用滑动平均误差订正方法和历史偏差订正方法,对欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,简称ECMWF)的数值模式延伸期2米温度预报进行误差订正。研究发现,应用滑动平均误差订正方法进行11-15天逐日温度预报订正时,25-30天是最优的训练期长度。对2018年订正预报的检验分析显示,应用上述两种误差订正方法均可减小模式预报的系统偏差,有效修正模式温度预报较实况明显偏低的问题,并将预报准确率提高30%以上。在6-10月,订正后的温度预报平均绝对误差基本在2℃以内,具有一定的参考性,其业务化产品可支撑预报员的业务预报需求。在15天内的延伸期预报时效上,两种订正方法对温度预报的订正效果差异并不明显。随着时效的延长,历史偏差订正方法的优势逐渐显现。
Abstract:The moving mean bias correction method and the historical deviation correction method are used to correct the error of the extended-range 2 m temperature forecast of the ECMWF numerical model. Through the study of the moving training period, the optimal training period length of the moving mean bias correction method is 25-30 days for daily temperature forecast from 11 to 15 days. The verification of corrected temperature forecast in 2018 show that the application of these two temperature deviation correction methods in this study can correct the deviation that the temperature forecast in model is significantly lower than observation, and improve the forecast accuracy by 30% at least. The mean absolute error of the corrected temperature forecast is basically less than 2℃ from June to October, which has certain reference value and can provide good support services for forecasters. There is no obvious difference between the two methods in the bias correction effect of the extended-range forecast within 15 days. With the extension of forecast time, the advantages of historical deviation correction method gradually emerge.
文章编号:201904220165     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家科技支撑项目
引用文本:
尹姗,李勇,马杰,邓星,蔡芗宁,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
YIN Shan,LI Yong,MA Jie,DENG Xing,CAI Xiangning,0.Preliminary Study on Bias Correction for the Extended-Range Temperature[J].Meteor Mon,():-.