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基于加密自动气象观测站和国家气象观测站的山东省极端短时强降水时空分布特征的对比分析
侯淑梅1, 孙敬文2, 孙鹏程3, 谷山青4, 邱粲5
(1.山东省气象台;2.中南财经政法大学;3.山东省海阳市气象局;4.山东省滨州市气象局;5.山东省气候中心)
Comparative Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Extreme Short-duration Heavy Rainfall in Shandong Province Based on Encrypted Automatic and National Meteorological Observatory Data
HOU Shu-mei1, Sun Jing-wen2, Sun Peng-cheng3, Gu Shan-qing4, qiu can5
(1.Shandong Meteorological Observatory,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology;2.Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;3.Haiyang Meteorological Bureau;4.Binzhou Meteorological Bureau;5.Shandong Climate Center)
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投稿时间:2018-04-14    修订日期:2019-04-04
中文摘要: 本文利用2008—2017年4—10月山东省加密自动气象观测站(简称全部站)和国家气象观测站(简称国家站)逐小时1mm以上降水量资料,通过对比分析,探究不同分辨率数据对极端短时强降水时空分布特征的刻画效果。结果表明:(1)全部站小时降水量的偏态特征比国家站明显,若分析小时降水量的平均状态,两者均具有代表性,若分析短时强降水的极端性,全部站数据更具有优越性。(2)将各站99.5百分位作为极端短时强降水的阈值最合理,全部站和国家站对于30—45mm阈值的空间分布特征相似,45mm以上的阈值,全部站的数值和范围均大于国家站。(3)全省大部地区的极端短时强降水强度集中在40—60mm?h-1,全部站和国家站在此区间的空间分布特征相似。国家站数据不能刻画40 mm?h-1以下和60 mm?h-1以上的极端短时强降水的空间分布特征。(4)极端短时强降水强度的空间分布特征与地理位置及地形特征密切相关。鲁东南地区的极端短时强降水强度、日最大降水量及夏季降水量、年降水量均居全省之首,鲁西北地区虽然强降水频次高、强度大,但与年降水量和夏季降水量没有正相关关系。(5)全部站与国家站极端短时强降水频次的月变化和日变化特征一致,但国家站不能完全代表全省极端短时强降水强度的月变化和日变化平均状况,全部站数据能更准确的反映全省的时间变化特征。
Abstract:Using the more than 1mm hourly precipitation data of the encrypted automatic weather observatory (referred to as the all stations) and the national meteorological observatory (referred to as the national stations) in Shandong Province from April to October 2008-2017, this study compared the characterization of spatiotemporal distribution of extreme short-duration heavy precipitation with different resolution data. The results indicated that:(1) the skewed characteristics of all stations hourly precipitation were more obvious than those of the national stations. For the average state of hourly precipitation, both were representative. However, for the analysis of the extremes of short-duration heavy rainfall, all-stations data was more advantageous. (2)It was most reasonable to use the 99.5th percentile of each station as the threshold for extreme short-duration heavy precipitation. The spatial distribution characteristics of the 30-45mm threshold were similar for all stations and national stations. For thresholds above 45 mm, the values and ranges of all stations were both greater than the national stations. (3)The extreme short-duration heavy precipitation intensity in most parts of the province was concentrated at 40-60mm?h-1, and the spatial distribution characteristics of all stations and national stations in this interval were similar. National-station data cannot characterize the spatial distribution of extreme short-duration heavy precipitation with intensity below 40 mm?h-1 and above 60 mm?h-1. (4)The spatial distribution characteristics of extreme short-duration heavy precipitation intensity were closely related to geographical location and topographical features. The extreme short-duration precipitation intensity, daily maximum precipitation, summer precipitation and annual precipitation in the southeastern Shandong Province ranked first in the province. Although the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation were high in northwestern Shandong, it had no positive correlation with annual precipitation and summer precipitation. (5)The monthly and diurnal variations of the extreme short-duration heavy precipitation frequency of all stations were consistent with those of the national stations. However, the national-station data cannot fully represent the monthly and diurnal variation of the extreme short-duration heavy precipitation intensity in the province. The data of all stations can more accurately reflect the time variation characteristics of precipitation in the province.
文章编号:201804140171     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2016DM20)、中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2018-041)、山东省气象局课题(2016sdqxz01,2014sdqxm21)
引用文本:
侯淑梅,孙敬文,孙鹏程,谷山青,邱粲,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
HOU Shu-mei,Sun Jing-wen,Sun Peng-cheng,Gu Shan-qing,qiu can,0.Comparative Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Extreme Short-duration Heavy Rainfall in Shandong Province Based on Encrypted Automatic and National Meteorological Observatory Data[J].Meteor Mon,():-.