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高分辨率模式雷达回波预报能力分析
刘静1, 才奎志1, 谭政华2
(1.辽宁省气象灾害监测预警中心;2.本溪市气象局)
Radar Echo Forecasting Capability Analysis in DifferentHigh -Resolution Models
Liu Jing1, CAI Kuizhi1, Tan Zhenghua2
(1.Liaoning Warning Center of Meteorological Disaster Monitoring;2.Benxi Meteorological Observatory)
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投稿时间:2018-10-16    修订日期:2019-09-16
中文摘要: 利用2018年7-8月GRAPES_3KM、东北WRFRUC高分辨率模式综合雷达回波预报数据和辽宁省SWAN雷达组合反射率(MCR)实况,基于邻域法FSS评分指数,分析模式在台风北上和副高边缘暴雨过程中的雷达回波预报能力。结果表明:两家模式在不同降水过程中对小阈值雷达回波有较好的预报技巧,随着回波量级增大,模式预报FSS逐渐减小,雷达回波大于55dBz时,FSS甚至为0。当邻域半径是3时,35dBz 以下的回波预报中GRAPES模式在台风北上暴雨中的预报技巧低于副高边缘,大于35dBz则相反。WRFRUC模式始终表现为台风北上暴雨中预报较好。当邻域半径大于9时,WRFRUC模式在台风暴雨中的FSS评分高于GRAPES模式,GRAPES模式在副高暴雨中的FSS评分始终高于WRFRUC模式。GRAPES和WRFRUC模式的最大FSS评分技巧均出现在邻域半径是11时,分别为0.239和0.195。GRAPES模式中FSS评分在12小时逐小时预报中前3个时次较强,WRFRUC模式则表现为中间时次强,两头弱。
Abstract:Using the forecasting Radar echo data from GRAPES_3KM(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) and WRFRUC of July and August in 2018,the real Radar echo data from SWAN(),based of FSS(Fractions Skill Score),the Radar echo forecast ability in system of typhoon and subtropical anticyclone in two high-resolution models are analyzed.The result showed that:Weak Radar echo forecast in two models have better skill ,with increase of Radar echo,The forecasting skill score decreases.when Radar echo reached 55 dBz, FSS even equal zero.When spatial neighborhood radius is 3, forecasting is more skilled in the typhoon rain than subtropical anticyclone rain when Radar echo is less than 35dBz.If Radar echo is bigger than 35dBz,it is in contrast.The forecasting of Radar echo in WRFRUC model alway better in typhoon rain than subtropical anticyclone rain .When spatial neighborhood radius increasing to 9,the echo forecasting FSS is higher in WRFRUC model than GRAPES model in typhoon rain ,but in subtropical anticyclone rain,GRAPES model has the higher skill than WRFRUC model.The biggest FSS in GRAPES and WRFRUC model are both at the spatial neighborhood radius of 11,value are 0.239 and 0.195.In the first three time of the forecasting ,FSS is bigger than other hours in the model of GRAPES. In the middle times of the echo forecasting of WRFRUC model ,FSS is higher than other hours.
文章编号:201810160447     中图分类号:P456.7    文献标志码:
基金项目:2019年中国气象局预报员专项“高分辨率模式雷达回波预报能力检验分析”(CMAYBY2019-025)和2018年中国气象局预报员专项“东北冷涡局地暴雨典型个例预警技术研究”(CMAYBY2018-016)。
引用文本:
刘静,才奎志,谭政华,2019.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,(12):-.
Liu Jing,CAI Kuizhi,Tan Zhenghua,2019.Radar Echo Forecasting Capability Analysis in DifferentHigh -Resolution Models[J].Meteor Mon,(12):-.