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台风“纳沙”和“海棠”的预报着眼点分析
董林1, 吕心艳1, 许映龙1, 高拴柱2
(1.国家气象中心;2.中国气象局 国家气象中心)
The Analysis of Forecast Focuses of Binary Typhoons Nesat and Haitang
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投稿时间:2018-06-28    修订日期:2019-07-17
中文摘要: 2017年7月的两个台风(1709号“纳沙”和1710号“海棠”)在近海发生罕见的近距离相互作用和环流合并,给登陆点的预报及二次登陆时的强度预报造成很大困难,包括ECMWF和NCEP等在内的大部分数值模式均未能较好地做出预报,但实际业务中的官方预报则较为准确。本文重点总结了实际业务中的预报经验,并对预报着眼点进行了分析归纳,主要包括:第一,利用天气学模型、模式的偏差订正经验和集合预报结果等,分析模式对副高等大尺度环流背景预报的合理性;第二,通过分析双台最靠近时刻的相对强度来确定主环流,从而判断两个台风的登陆时间差、各自的极值强度和陆上维持机制的差异;第三,充分考虑登陆台湾的路径角度和过岛时间这两个影响因子,从而修订台风二次登陆时的强度。
Abstract:The accurate prediction of the first-time landing position and the second-time landing intensity are very difficult because of the rare near-distance for the binary typhoons Nesat (No. 1709) and Haitang (No. 1710). Although CMA issued an accurate official forecast, the performance of most models including ECMWF and NCEP is far from satisfactory. Forecast experience and focus in the operation are analyzed and summarized in this paper. First, the rationality of model prediction for the large-scale circulation such as subtropical high is analyzed based on synoptic models, deviation revision experience and the performance of ensemble forecasting system. Second, the main circulation is determined by analyzing the relative intensity of the closest time of the binary typhoons, so as to judge the difference between the landing times of two typhoons, their extreme strength and the onshore maintenance mechanism. Third, paying more attention to two influencing factors of the typhoon track angle with Taiwan's Central Mountain Range and cross-island time is helpful to revise the second-time landing intensity.
文章编号:201806280279     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目),国家重点研发项目
引用文本:
董林,吕心艳,许映龙,高拴柱,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
donglin,Lyu xinyan,Xu yinglong,Gao shuanzhu,0.The Analysis of Forecast Focuses of Binary Typhoons Nesat and Haitang[J].Meteor Mon,():-.