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湖北高速公路道路结冰预警模型
舒斯, 熊守权, 陈英英, 何明琼, 袁正腾, 鲁静, 崔杨, 唐俊
(湖北省气象服务中心)
Warning Model of Road Surface Icing of Expressway in Hubei
SHU Si#$NBS, XIONG Shouquan, CHEN Yingying, HE Ming-qiong, YUAN Zheng-teng, LU Jing, CUI Yang, TANG Jun
(Hubei Provincial Meteorological Service Center)
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投稿时间:2018-08-17    修订日期:2019-09-19
中文摘要: 提 要:本文利用2013年以来建立的湖北省高速公路沿线的87个交通气象观测站每十分钟一次的气温及路面温度等实况资料,对各个高速路段的路面结冰频率随气温的变化规律进行了分析,发现均满足Logistic回归模型,但不同高速路段结冰对应的环境气温有差异。通过研究各个高速路段道路结冰的气温条件概率P,计算得到湖北高速各个路段拐点气温,再结合路段降水情况,可以对湖北省高速公路结冰进行预警,从而为高速公路是否开展消冰措施、何时开展消冰措施提供建议。
Abstract:In this paper, we use the factual information of air temperature and road surface temperature every ten minutes from 87 traffic and weather observatories along the expressway in Hubei Province established since 2013. First, the critical temperature at the time when the pavement temperature reached 0°C was statistically analyzed, and the critical temperature distribution map of the entire Hubei high-speed road section was obtained. Then, by analyzing the probabilistic (P) model of air temperature conditions for different road sections, it is found that the corresponding ambient air temperature differs in different road sections, and each road section has its own probability model. By studying the probability P of the temperature conditions of road icing on each high-speed road section, the temperature of the inflection point of each road section of Hubei Expressway was calculated. Combined with the precipitation (snow) condition of the road section, it is possible to give an early warning of the icing on the highways in Hubei Province. Based on the case studies of typical road icing in 2016 and 2018, it was found that highway icing risk grades can guide highways to carry out anti-icing measures, and can give corresponding forecast results at least one day in advance. Promptly advise on ice-removal measures. It can build a model and give a forecast of icing risk on a daily basis to provide early warning of highway icing in Hubei Province.
文章编号:201808170365     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:湖北省气象局科技发展基金重点项目(2019Z07)智能网格预报产品在高速公路交通气象服务中的应用研究,湖北省气象局科技发展基金面上项目(2018Y09)湖北省高速公路主要气象灾害预警预报关键技术研究,湖北省气象局青年基金项目(2018Q11)湖北省旅游景点避暑指数研究共同资助
引用文本:
舒斯,熊守权,陈英英,何明琼,袁正腾,鲁静,崔杨,唐俊,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
SHU Si#$NBS,XIONG Shouquan,CHEN Yingying,HE Ming-qiong,YUAN Zheng-teng,LU Jing,CUI Yang,TANG Jun,0.Warning Model of Road Surface Icing of Expressway in Hubei[J].Meteor Mon,():-.