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河北省副热带高压外围降水的特征与预报
李江波, 曾建刚, 孔凡超, 王玉虹, 孙卓
(河北省气象台)
Characteristics and Predictive Focus of Torrential Rain along the outer boundary of West Pacific Subtropical High in Hebei Province
LI Jiangbo, ZENG Jiangang, KONG Fanchao, WANG Yuhong, SUN Zhuo
(Hebei Meteorological Observatory)
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投稿时间:2017-09-25    修订日期:2019-09-18
中文摘要: 摘要:应用高空、地面等常规观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、京津冀降雨量资料,对2000-2013年河北省69次副热带高压外围降水个例进行了综合分析,结果表明:(1)69个副高外围降水个例雨量统计表明,暴雨和大暴雨发生频次自西北向东南明显增加,有三个区域较易出现暴雨和大暴雨:燕山南麓的唐山和秦皇岛、太行山东麓的邢台、河北平原东部的沧州和衡水。河北北部的坝上高原和保定西北部山区出现暴雨的概率较低。(2)按照副高型态,将69个副热带高外围暴雨过程分为3类,分别给出了每类的代表环流型和降水分布特征,并对这3种类型的环流背景场和物理量场进行了合成分析,给出了不同类型的环流特征和物理量特征。(3)统计了多个物理量及气象要素的平均值和极端值,统计结果可作为该类暴雨过程的量级、强度及极端性预报的重要参考指标。(4)在预报副热带高压外围降水降水过程时,除了关注高空槽和副高的位置、强度、型态外,更要关注中低层及地面辐合系统。强降水多发生在584dagpm或586dagpm等高线外围、低层700hPa和850hPa的低涡和切变线及地面倒槽或低压附近。
Abstract:Abstract: Statistics and Composite analysis of 69 torrential rain cases along the outer boundary of West Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) were carried out, using the upper and surface observations, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the rainfall of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province. The results showed that: (1) The frequency of torrential rain events increased obviously from the northwest to the southeast of Hebei Province, accompanied with three high-frequency regions, which located at Qinhuangdao and Tangshan in the south foot of Yan Mountain, Xingtai in the east foot of Taihang Mountain and Cangzhou and Hengshui in Hebei Plain respectively, and two low-frequency regions, which located at the mountains in the northwest of Baoding, and the area in the north of Zhangjiakou and the north of Chengde respectively. (2) The 69 torrential rain cases were divided into three groups according to the flow patterns of WPSH, which were called blocking, quasi-east-west banding and northeast-southwest banding WPSH here, respectively. Some typical flow patterns at 500hPa and the frequency of rainfall over 50mm and 100mm in each group were plotted by composite analysis, as well as the spatial distribution of a lot of elements ( the atmospheric precipitable water vapor , CAPE, vertical velocity at 700hPa, Pseudoequivalent Potential Temperature and K index etc.).(3) By statistics, the mean and maximum values of some physical quantities of the 69 torrential rain cases were counted, which can be considered as the important clues to forecast the amount and location of the heavy rainfall, and to estimate the extremity of the case in weather forecast operation. (4) Generally, more attentions should be paid to the location and intensity of the middle/low level convergence, except the location, intensity and flow pattern of WPSH and the upper trough in the operational forecasting of the torrential rain along the outer boundary of WPSH. The intensive rainfalls were prone to occurring at the area along the 584 or 586 dagpm line at 500hPa, at the shear or the center of the vortex at 700/850hPa, as well as the inverted trough or the center of the surface low pressure.
文章编号:201709250435     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:(UMRF201;中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2013-007);河北省强对流创新团队;国家自然基金(41575049)
引用文本:
李江波,曾建刚,孔凡超,王玉虹,孙卓,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
LI Jiangbo,ZENG Jiangang,KONG Fanchao,WANG Yuhong,SUN Zhuo,0.Characteristics and Predictive Focus of Torrential Rain along the outer boundary of West Pacific Subtropical High in Hebei Province[J].Meteor Mon,():-.