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强降水和冰雹对流许可尺度集合预报个例试验
孙敏, 戴建华
(上海中心气象台)
Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts of Intense Rainfall and Hail: Case Study
SUN Min, Dai Jianhua
(Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory)
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投稿时间:2018-10-09    修订日期:2019-01-14
中文摘要: 利用对流许可尺度集合预报系统,针对2015年4月28日夜间移动到江苏南部和上海地区,伴随短时强降水和冰雹的一次强对流过程,使用初始多源融合分析场对集合预报结果影响进行了分析。结合上海南汇双偏振雷达基数据观测,对12-14小时预报时效的反射率因子、差分反射率及冰雹集合预报结果进行了定性和定量的评估,分析了改进初始水物质分布,同时增加小尺度信息对于模式预报结果的影响。主要结果为:(1)对反射率因子预报的评估显示,初始场调整了水物质分布且增加了小尺度信息的试验(以下简称ADAS试验),对降水的范围、分布特征及评分都有明显改进;(2)由于差分反射率在较小的距离内变化剧烈,对其准确预报难度较大,ADAS试验虽然预报强度偏强,但整体的位置和强度与实况更为接近,特别在大粒子预报方面具有更高的技巧,能够对微物理过程相关特征更好地进行描述;(3)使用地面人工观测和双偏振雷达观测对冰雹概率预报评估的结果显示,ADAS试验预报的高概率降雹区与观测落区接近,对冰雹落区预报具有一定的指示意义。通过多源融合分析调整初始水物质分布并增加小尺度信息的集合预报试验改善了较长预报时效的强降水和冰雹概率预报,具有更高的可信度,双偏振变量预报具有区分强降水与冰雹的优势,并通过与观测的对比可以更好地评估模式对微物理过程描述的准确性。
Abstract:Convective-allowing ensemble forecasts were performed for a severe convection associated with short-duration intense rainfall and hail, which occurred in southern Jiangsu province and Shanghai area during the night on 28 April 2015. The data integration analysis were conducted at the initial time, using ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS). The distribution of water substance were adjusted and more small-scale information were added to the initial field by using ADAS. Qualitative and quantitative verifications against Shanghai Nanhui dual-polarization radar observations were performed on the 12-14h ensemble forecasts, including predicted reflectivity, differential reflectivity and hail. The results show that ADAS ensemble predicts the structure and location of the total and convective precipitation coverage more realistically compared with observations, and it also has higher forecast skill than the control (CTRL) ensemble. Differential reflectivity varies dramatically within a small distance, thus increasing the difficulty to make accurate predictions. In terms of the simulated differential reflectivity, the ADAS ensemble may produce higher values, but the overall position and intensity are closer to observations. The ADAS ensemble is more skillful for the prediction of large-scale particles, which suggesting better description of the microphysics-related features. Compared with ground hail observations and dual-polarization radar observations, the predicted high probability hail location in ADAS ensemble is closer to the observations, which is of great significance to the prediction of hail falling area. Also, the ADAS ensemble improves the long-lead-time hail prediction and has higher confidence than the CTRL ensemble. The predicted dual-polarization variable has the advantage of distinguishing between intense rainfall and hail, providing an effective tool to evaluate the accuracy of the microphysical process description in the numerical model compared with the observation.
文章编号:201810090438     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目),上海市科委科研计划项目,中国气象局预报员专项,上海市气象局强对流科技创新团队项目
引用文本:
孙敏,戴建华,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
SUN Min,Dai Jianhua,0.Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts of Intense Rainfall and Hail: Case Study[J].Meteor Mon,():-.