董林, 高拴柱, 许映龙, 钱奇峰, 黄奕武
(中国气象局 国家气象中心)
The Analysis of the Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of TCs on Western North Pacific in 2017
donglin, gao shuan zhu, xu ying long, qian qi feng, huang yi wu
(National Meteorological Center)
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投稿时间:2018-05-30    修订日期:2019-07-22
中文摘要: 利用历史台风最佳路径、中央气象台台风路径强度实时预报,以及ECMWF数值预报和NCEP海温实况等资料,对2017年西北太平洋台风活动的主要特征和预报难点进行了分析,结果表明:2017年度,台风生成具有源地偏西、南海台风偏多和台风群发特征明显等特征;台风活动具有年度活跃程度低、台风极值强度偏弱和超强台风异常偏少等特征;台风登陆具有登陆台风个数多、登陆地点偏南、登陆强度偏弱等特征。对本年度的预报误差进行分析,结果显示:24-120小时台风路径预报误差分别为74、137、233、318、428 km;各时效误差均较2016年有所增加。但与日、美相比,除120小时外,中国路径预报水平依然处于领先地位。 24-120小时台风强度误差分别为3.6、5.4、6.6、7.4和6.8m/s;较2016年有所减小;24小时误差为历史最低值。强度预报水平居于日、美之间。另外,本年度最主要的预报难点是双台风或多台风之间复杂的相互作用和近海快速加强台风的强度预报问题。同时这两类预报难点问题都包含着更加复杂的台风移动和发展的机理问题,这些难题阻碍了预报水平的提高、影响了服务效果,亟待解决。这些问题也正是台风机理研究的核心问题,需要更多的观测资料、更深入的研究和较长的时间才可能有所突破。
Abstract:The characteristics of TCs on Western North Pacific in 2017 were analyzed by using the best-track data, CMA operational forecasting data, ECMWF products and NCEP SST_RTG data. Results can be summarized in three perspectives. First is the tropical cyclogenesis. Results show that TCs with obvious characteristics of the cluster of tropical cyclogenesis. The generating locations are inclined to be westward. There are more TCs that generated on South China Sea than those in other areas. Second aspect is TCs’ activities. It can be concluded that the annual activity level is low, TCs’ extreme intensity is rather weak, and the number of super typhoon is anomaly small. The third is TCs’ landing. Results show that more TCs make landfall this year. And the landing locations are inclined to be southward and the average intensity of landing TCs is weak in general. Estimations of track errors of this year show that there are small increases compared to those of 2016, with the value of 74, 137, 233, 318 and 428 km for 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h lead time, respectively. As for track forecast skill, CMA is ahead of JMA and JTWC except the 120 h lead time. The intensity errors are 3.6, 5.4, 6.6, 7.4 and 6.8 m/s for 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h lead time, respectively and decrease a little compared to the errors of 2016. It is noteworthy that the error of 24 h lead time is record low. The Intensity forecast skill is between JMA and JTWC. The forecast difficulties are the complicated interaction between binary or among multiple TCs and the intensity forecast of RI TCs off-shore. These two obstacles, which involve complex mechanism of TC’s movement and development, prevent the improvement of forecast accuracy and service, and should be addressed as soon as possible. These issues are also the key problems in TC research, where breakthrough can be made if more observations are available and longer research work is performed.
文章编号:201805300243     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
董林,高拴柱,许映龙,钱奇峰,黄奕武,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
donglin,gao shuan zhu,xu ying long,qian qi feng,huang yi wu,0.The Analysis of the Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of TCs on Western North Pacific in 2017[J].Meteor Mon,():-.