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气象:2019,45(4):553-564
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影响2018年汛期气候的先兆信号及预测效果评估
陈丽娟,顾薇,龚振淞,任宏利
(国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081, 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044)
Precursory Signals of the 2018 Summer Climate in China and Evaluation of Real Time Prediction
CHEN Lijuan,GU Wei,GONG Zhensong,REN Hongli
(Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Centre, CMA, Beijing 100081, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044)
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投稿时间:2019-02-11    修订日期:2019-02-27
中文摘要: 准确预测了2018年我国汛期降水“南北多,中间少,旱涝并重”的总体布局,尤其是准确预测了黄河流域降水异常偏多,而长江流域降水异常偏少的特征;对2018年东部地区季节内雨季进程前晚后早和夏季全国大部气温正常到偏高的预测也与实况一致;对西北太平洋和南海热带气旋生成和登陆我国的数量偏多、西北行和北上为主的移动路径、活跃程度前强后弱的预测与实况吻合。2018年汛期气候预测重点分析了冬季达到盛期的拉尼娜事件及其衰减后热带印度洋海温偏低有利于东亚夏季风偏强的机理,还参考了国内外动力气候模式预测西太平洋副热带高压脊线偏北、菲律宾为气旋式异常环流的结果。对先兆信号影响的诊断分析以及动力模式的结果均预测东亚夏季风明显偏强,西太平洋副热带高压偏北,因此拉尼娜事件和印度洋海温对其滞后响应的偏冷特征是有利于预测汛期长江中下游地区降水明显偏少、北方地区降水偏多的重要先兆信号。
Abstract:In the summer (June to August) of 2018, precipitation was more than average over North China and South China, while it was less over the middle part of East China. Especially, floods were severe in the Yellow River Basin and droughts were observed in the Yangtze River Valley. The pre flood season in South China and Meiyu season began later relatively, while the rainy season in North China began earlier. All these features were well predicted in the climate operation. The forecast also captured the anomalous features of the tropical cyclone frequency, tracks, intensity and active/inactive periods over the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea in 2018. Moreover, the forecast provided a correct prediction of the surface air temperature which was higher than average in most regions of China. Both diagnostic analyses and results from dynamic models were used to make the summer climate prediction in 2018. For the diagnostic analyses, La Ni〖AKn~D〗a event and the cold tropical Indian Ocean were considered to be important predictors. Under the influence of the tropical SSTA, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) tended to stay more northward, cyclonic circulation anomaly dominated the Philippines and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was stronger than normal. Dynamic climate models from Beijing Climate Centre and abroad showed similar results of the prediction for the key members of EASM system. The results of diagnostic analyses and dynamic models all indicated that the La Ni〖AKn~D〗a event and the cold tropical Indian Ocean were important precursory signals for the prediction of the climate anomaly in summer 2018, which supported less rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and more in northern part of China.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2015CB453203)、国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAC03B04)及国家自然科学基金项目(41805067和41275073)共同资助
引用文本:
陈丽娟,顾薇,龚振淞,任宏利,2019.影响2018年汛期气候的先兆信号及预测效果评估[J].气象,45(4):553-564.
CHEN Lijuan,GU Wei,GONG Zhensong,REN Hongli,2019.Precursory Signals of the 2018 Summer Climate in China and Evaluation of Real Time Prediction[J].Meteor Mon,45(4):553-564.