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气象:2019,45(4):445-457
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我国无缝隙精细化网格天气预报技术进展与挑战
金荣花,代刊,赵瑞霞,曹勇,薛峰,刘凑华,赵声蓉,李勇,韦青
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Progress and Challenge of Seamless Fine Gridded Weather Forecasting Technology in China
JIN Ronghua,DAI Kan,ZHAO Ruixia,CAO Yong,XUE Feng,LIU Couhua,ZHAO Shengrong,LI Yong,WEI Qing
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2018-11-30    修订日期:2019-03-05
中文摘要: 本文总结了2014年以来我国无缝隙精细化网格天气预报业务的技术进展,讨论了未来发展所面临的关键技术难点。无缝隙精细化网格预报技术的发展,得益于综合气象观测数据和多源资料融合分析网格实况产品的支撑,更依赖于多尺度数值预报模式和实时快速更新同化预报系统的快速发展。经过近5年的探索和努力,我国已经初步建立了针对不同预报时效的无缝隙精细化网格预报技术体系。对于0~4 h预报时效,主要基于全国雷达拼图和GRAPES Meso模式预报,发展临近分钟级滚动外推预报技术;对于4 h到30 d预报时效,主要通过对区域或全球不同时空分辨率模式预报进行偏差订正、客观解释应用以及降尺度分析,提高预报的准确度和精细度。与此同时,研发了自动化、智能化的交互式预报制作平台,以满足客观高效制作与预报员对极端或高影响天气主观预报优势相结合的需求。发展了以格点实况分析场为参照的空间分析检验方法,初步实现了对高分辨率网格预报的质量跟踪和性能评估。未来的网格预报技术体系,需要吸纳前沿的技术研究成果,包括人工智能应用技术、高级多模式统计后处理技术和协调一致性关键技术等,并且建立统一完整的技术架构和开发标准等。
Abstract:This paper reviews the development of the technology for seamless fine gridded weather forecasting in China since 2014. And the key technical difficulties in the future development are analyzed. It is pointed out that the high spatio temporal resolution observations capturing the fine structure of weather systems, the analysis products by multi source data fusion, the real time rapid updating assimilation and prediction system, the high resolution regional model providing short time and short term weather prediction, the global numerical forecast model providing 10 days’ weather forecasting, and the ocean atmosphere coupled ensemble prediction system providing 46 days’ weather prediction, have jointly established the premise and foundation of the seamless gridded weather forecasts. After nearly 5 years’ exploration and constant efforts, the technology system of seamless fine gridded forecasting with different temporal resolutions has been established. The high frequency lagrangian extrapolation skills are used for 0-4 h forecasting based on GRAPES Meso model forecast products and radar data over China. For the 4 h to 30 d lead time forecasting, it mainly depends on the downscaling, error correction, model output statistics and post processing methodologies based on regional and global models of different spatio temporal resolutions to improve forecast skills and resolution. At the same time, automatic and intelligent interactive forecasting platform is developed to meet the demand of combining efficient objective forecasting with forecas ters’ subjective intelligence. In order to assess and track the performance of high resolution gridded forecasting, a spatial analysis verification method based on gridded observation data is developed. It is also stressed that the future gridded forecasting technology system should be able to reflect the latest technology development including the artificial intelligence application, more advanced statistical post processing skills, key technics for consistency forecasting and unified complete technical architecture and standards.
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基金项目:国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAC03B04)和气象预报业务关键技术发展专项(YBGJXM201804)共同资助
引用文本:
金荣花,代刊,赵瑞霞,曹勇,薛峰,刘凑华,赵声蓉,李勇,韦青,2019.我国无缝隙精细化网格天气预报技术进展与挑战[J].气象,45(4):445-457.
JIN Ronghua,DAI Kan,ZHAO Ruixia,CAO Yong,XUE Feng,LIU Couhua,ZHAO Shengrong,LI Yong,WEI Qing,2019.Progress and Challenge of Seamless Fine Gridded Weather Forecasting Technology in China[J].Meteor Mon,45(4):445-457.