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气象:2017,43(12):1554-1561
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珠三角城市集群化发展对热岛强度的影响
王志春1,2,徐海秋2,汪宇3
(1 广东省气象台,广州 510080 2 广东省气象防灾技术服务中心,广州 510080 3 广东省环境监测中心,国家环境保护区域空气质量监测重点实验室,广州 510308)
Influence of Pearl River Delta Urban Cluster Development on Urban Heat Island Intensity
WANG Zhichun1,2,XU Haiqiu2,WANG Yu3
(1 Guangdong Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080 2 Guangdong Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Service Center, Guangzhou 510080 3 State Environmental Key Laboratory of Regional Air Quality Monitoring,  〓Guangdong Environmental Monitoring Center, Guangzhou 510308)
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投稿时间:2016-07-21    修订日期:2017-06-16
中文摘要: 利用珠三角城市发展资料及珠三角地区近28年的气温资料,研究了珠三角城市集群化发展指标与城市热岛效应之间的关系。认为:(1)珠三角城市集群化发展指标在2000年前发展缓慢,2000年后,珠三角城市集群化发展指标增长率比2000年前增长了5~9倍;(2)热岛强度增温率2000年前为0.34 ℃·(10 a)-1,而2000年后热岛强度增温率为0.69 ℃·(10 a)-1,热岛强度增温率增加了1倍。(3)珠三角地区城市热岛强度逐年增强,年内热岛强度雨季和干季变化明显,雨季热岛强度弱而干季热岛强度强,最弱热岛出现在降水充沛的7月,最强热岛出现在天气干燥的12月。(4)采用灰色关联度分析结果显示:城市建成区面积、工业总产值、全年总用电量和常住人口等指标对气温和热岛强度影响明显;根据城市发展指标对气温和热岛强度的关联度,采用灰色模型拟合了城市集群化发展指标对气温和热岛强度的平均拟合相对误差分别为2.7%和7.0%,说明该模型可以较好地拟合城市集群化发展指标对气温和热岛强度的影响。
Abstract:Urban development information and observed atmospheric temperature over the past 28 years are analyzed to study the relationship between urban cluster development indexes and urban heat island effect in the Pearl River Delta Region. The results reveal that urban cluster development indexes increase slowly before 2000, but soar five to nine times afterwards. Warming rate of the urban heat island intensity (UHII) is 0.34 ℃·(10 a)-1 before 2000, and doubles to 0.69 ℃·(10 a)-1 after 2000. The UHII increases year by year, and changes significantly during a year. It is weak in rainy seasons, but strong in dry seasons. In July when rainfall is abundant, the UHII is the weakest, whereas in December when the weather is dry, it is the strongest. Gray relational analysis indicates that, urban development indexes, including city built up area, gross industrial output value, total annual electricity consumption and resident population significantly affect atmospheric temperature and the UHII. Urban development indexes are sorted according to their correlation coefficients with atmospheric temperature and the UHII in descending order. Then, indexes with greater correlation are selected to build a gray model, simulating atmospheric temperature and the UHII. This gray model performs well with the mean relative fitting error of urban cluster development indexes being 2.7% and 7% to air temperature and the UHII, respectively.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P467    文献标志码:
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406031)和广东省气象防灾技术服务中心业务科研项目(FZ201704)共同资助
引用文本:
王志春,徐海秋,汪宇,2017.珠三角城市集群化发展对热岛强度的影响[J].气象,43(12):1554-1561.
WANG Zhichun,XU Haiqiu,WANG Yu,2017.Influence of Pearl River Delta Urban Cluster Development on Urban Heat Island Intensity[J].Meteor Mon,43(12):1554-1561.