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文章摘要
引用本文:余贞寿,冀春晓,董美莹,邱金晶.2017.浙江时间多尺度台风暴雨增幅特征的统计研究.气象,43(12):1496-1506.
浙江时间多尺度台风暴雨增幅特征的统计研究
Statistical Analysis on Multi Timescale Heavy Rainfall Reinforcement Associated with Tropical Cyclone in Zhejiang Province
投稿时间:2016-12-28  最后修改时间:2017-07-20
DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.12.005
中文关键词: 热带气旋,多时间尺度,暴雨增幅、极端暴雨增幅,沿海地区
英文关键词: tropical cyclone (TC), multi timescale, heavy rainfall reinforcement, extreme heavy rainfall reinforcement, coastal areas
基金项目:灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2014LASW B06)、国家自然科学基金项目(41375056)、中国气象局省级气象科研所科技创新发展项目(台风强降水精细化预报和灾害风险评估)和浙江省气象科技计划项目(2013ZD01)共同资助
作者单位
余贞寿 浙江省气象科学研究所杭州 310008;中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京 100081 
冀春晓 浙江省气象科学研究所杭州 310008 
董美莹 浙江省气象科学研究所杭州 310008 
邱金晶 浙江省气象科学研究所杭州 310008 
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中文摘要:
      本文提出基于欧拉坐标方法的多时间尺度热带气旋(TC)暴雨增幅及极端暴雨增幅的概念来研究沿海地区TC暴雨增幅,从浙江省内67个国家级台站的整点时刻逐小时降水资料提取1973—2015年影响浙江的135个TC个例的逐1、3、6、12、24 h(1~24 h)降水增量样本,结合TC中心位置和强度信息,统计得到:浙江1~24 h时间分辨率下出现TC极端暴雨增幅阈值分别为29.1、51.9、88.3、103.9和123.9 mm;不同时间分辨率下浙江TC暴雨增幅频次具有比较一致的月际变化、年际变化、长期线性趋势特征,不同时长的TC暴雨增幅的日变化不尽相同;浙江发生TC暴雨增幅和极端暴雨增幅主要出现频率最高的地区是温州南部和台州南部。影响浙江台风9类路径都有可能发生TC暴雨增幅,除了舟山以北登陆类外,其他路径也均有可能发生TC极端暴雨增幅,TC暴雨增幅和TC极端暴雨增幅均以椒江到福清登陆类路径占比最多;TC中心位于浙江温台交界附近和福建东北部沿海时浙江最易发生TC暴雨增幅和极端暴雨增幅;不同分辨率下TC暴雨增幅和TC极端暴雨增幅发生频率最高的离TC中心距离是不同的,但TC暴雨增幅极大值均出现在距离台风中心600~700 km范围内;不同时间分辨率的TC暴雨增幅和TC极端暴雨增幅出现频率最高的是TC的东北象限,其次是西北象限,增幅极大值均出现在东北象限。另外,TC暴雨增幅和极端暴雨增幅均与TC强度有一定关系,从各时长平均来看,最易发生TC暴雨增幅的是强热带风暴级,最易发生TC极端暴雨增幅的是热带低压级。
英文摘要:
      In this study, a new concept of multi timescale heavy rainfall reinforcement (HRR) and extreme heavy rainfall reinforcement (EHRR) associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) based on Euler coordinate method are defined to study coastal areas. The 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h accumulated rainfall increment data of 135 TCs which influenced Zhejiang Province from 1973 to 2015 are extracted from hourly precipitation data of 67 national stations in Zhejiang Province, and the TC center location and intensity information of the above mentioned precipitation samples are also extracted from the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone best track datasets. Statistical results show that the thresholds of EHRR are 29.1, 51.9, 88.3, 103.9 and 123.9 mm over 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h, respectively. The frequencies of HRR under different temporal resolutions have similar seasonal variation, interannual variation and long term linear trend, but the diurnal variation is different. The HRR and EHRR occur mainly in the eastern coastal area of Zhejiang in which the southern part of Wenzhou and the southern part of Taizhou are the highest frequency areas. HRR is likely to occur with 9 kinds of typhoon tracks which influenced Zhejiang. Except for the tracks by which TCs landed north of Zhoushan, EHRR could happen with the other tracks. The kind of track by which TC landed between Jiaojiang and Fuqing occupies the most percent of frequency of HRR and EHRR. Most of the TC centers concentrate in the border of Wenzhou and Taizhou in Zhejiang and northeast coast of Fujian when HRR and EHRR happened. The high frequency of HRR and EHRR at different timescales has different distance away from the TC center, but the maximum value of TC HRR appears in the range of typhoon center 600-700 km. The highest frequency of HRR and EHRR occurs in the northeast quadrant under different temporal resolutions, followed by the northwest quadrant, and the most significant reinforcements occur in the northeast quadrant. In addition, HRR and EHRR are related to the intensity of TC. On average, the most likely occurrence of RRTC is the strong tropical storm level, and ERRTC is the tropical depression level.
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