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气象:2017,43(11):1402-1409
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基于MCI的中国干旱时空分布及灾情变化特征
廖要明,张存杰
(中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Spatio Temporal Distribution Characteristics and Disaster Change of Drought in China Based on Meteorological Drought Composite Index
LIAO Yaoming,ZHANG Cunjie
(Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Centre, CMA, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2017-03-07    修订日期:2017-06-14
中文摘要: 利用中国825个气象站点1961—2015年逐日降水量、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和平均风速等资料,根据2017年修订的国家标准《气象干旱等级》,计算得到各站点1961—2015年逐日气象干旱综合指数(meteorological drought composite index,MCI)。基于MCI指数系统分析了中国及东北、华北、西北东部、西南、长江中下游、华南6大区域中旱及以上干旱日数的时空分布及气候变化特征,并结合1951—2015年全国各省(区、市)农业干旱受灾面积和成灾面积,分析了我国不同地区干旱受灾情况以及灾情变化特征。结果表明:华北、黄淮、西北东部、东北西部、华南西部、西南大部以及内蒙古等地是我国干旱多发区,其中华北大部、黄淮东北部及陕西北部、甘肃河东大部、宁夏等地年干旱日数在60天以上,河北南部、宁夏大部、新疆北部和西部、云南中南部、海南南部等地最长连续干旱日数达210天以上;长江中下游、华南东部、西北中部、东北东部等地干旱日数相对较少。东北、华北干旱主要出现在春末和夏、秋季,西北地区东部主要发生在春末夏初,长江中下游地区主要出现在盛夏和秋季,华南地区的干旱主要出现在秋、冬季节,西南地区多出现在冬、春季节。1961—2015年,中国平均年干旱日数总体呈增加趋势,其中甘肃东南部、宁夏、陕西、山西南部、河南西部、湖北西北部、贵州中西部、云南中西部等地增加趋势明显,但西北中西部、东北中东部、江南大部、华南大部及青藏高原中西部、内蒙中西部等地年干旱日数呈减少趋势。1951—2015年,中国农作物因旱受灾和成灾面积总体呈增加趋势,但近年来有减少趋势。
Abstract:Based on the revised national standard of grades of meteorological drought, daily meteorological drought composite index (MCI) from 825 stations in China from 1961 to 2015 are calculated with historic daily rainfall, mean air temperature, maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature and wind speed. Spatio temporal distribution and changes of drought days over China and six regions such as Northeast China, North China, eastern Northwest China, Southwest China, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, South China are analyzed using the calculated daily MCI. Drought disaster rate of each province and changes of affected areas and damaged areas in China are also analyzed with disaster data from 1961 to 2015. The results show that annual drought days in North China, Huanghuai, eastern Northwest China, western Northeast China, western South China, most parts of Southwest China and Inner Mongolia are more than 40 days. Especially in most parts of North China, northeastern Huanghuai and northern Shaanxi, most parts of eastern Gansu and Ningxia, annual drought days are more than 60 days. The maximum dry spells in southern Hebei, most parts of Ningxia, northern and western Xinjiang, central and southern Yunnan, southern Hainan are more than 210 days. But in middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, eastern South China, central Northwest China, eastern Northeast China, annual drought days are less than 40 days. The drought mainly occurs in late spring, summer and autumn in Northeast China and North China, in late spring and early summer in eastern Northwest China, in midsummer and autumn in middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, in autumn and winter in South China and in winter and spring in Southwest China. Annual drought days are in an overall increasing trend over China from 1961 to 2015, especially in southeastern Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, southern Shanxi, western Henan, northwestern Hubei, central and western Guizhou, central and western Yunnan. But in central and western Northwest China, central and eastern Northeast China, most parts of Jiangnan and South China, central and western Tibet and Inner Mongolia, annual drought days have decreasing trend. Annual drought affected areas and damaged areas in China have an overall increasing trend from 1951 to 2015, but they are both decreasing in the recent years.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P461    文献标志码:
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506001和GYHY201406021)共同资助
引用文本:
廖要明,张存杰,2017.基于MCI的中国干旱时空分布及灾情变化特征[J].气象,43(11):1402-1409.
LIAO Yaoming,ZHANG Cunjie,2017.Spatio Temporal Distribution Characteristics and Disaster Change of Drought in China Based on Meteorological Drought Composite Index[J].Meteor Mon,43(11):1402-1409.