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气象:2017,43(10):1278-1286
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登陆华南台风强度的前兆信号分析及预测
胡娅敏1,王永光2,王娟怀1,汪明圣1,罗晓玲1
(1 广东省气候中心,广州 510080 2 国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Precursor Signal Analysis and Prediction for the Landfall Typhoon Intensity over South China
HU Yamin1,WANG Yongguang2,WANG Juanhuai1,WANG Mingsheng1,LUO Xiaoling1
(1 Guangdong Climate Centre, Guangzhou 510080 2 National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2016-12-14    修订日期:2017-09-12
中文摘要: 自20世纪90年代中期后,登陆华南台风频数减少、强度转弱,这一方面受台风和大尺度环流系统自身的年际和年代际变化共同影响,另一方面,可能受太平洋年代尺度振荡(PDO)调制。进一步选用年际增量法剔除年代际变化得到,若前冬呈现东部型拉尼娜(中部型厄尔尼诺)状态,随后的后汛期120°~130°E越赤道气流偏强(弱),继而是强(弱)辐合带、季风槽偏强偏北(偏弱偏南),有(不)利于台风在华南地区活跃,则对应累计气旋能量指数(ACE)年指数更强(弱),体现了台风、海温、大气环流的年际变化影响。最后,采用基于年际增量法的主成分回归方法对ACE指数进行建模,结果得到近30年回报相关系数高达0.80,2014和2015年的预报效果与实况较为一致。
Abstract:Since mid 1990s, there has been a reduction in frequency and intensity of landfall typhoon over South China (SC). This research reveals that the typhoon variation is jointly affected by the interannual and decadal typhoons and the large scale atmospheric circulation systems. On the other hand, it may be related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). By using the interannual increment method to get rid of the decadal variation, during the eastern La Ni〖AKn~D〗a (the central El Ni〖AKn~D〗o) episode in the preceding winter, it would be a stronger (weaker) cross equatorial flow over 120°-130°E, followed by convergence zone and monsoon trough with the location more northward (southward). This kind of atmosphere and ocean configuration could make the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) stronger (weaker). Therefore, the typhoon would be more powerful, which reflects the interannual interaction among the typhoon, the sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmospheric circulation systems. Finally, adopting the principal component regression technique based on the interannual incremental method, the prediction model of ACE index is constructed, whose hindcast correlation coefficient is up to 0.80 for the recent 30 years. And the 2014 and 2015 prediction results are consistent with the observations.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P461    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41305131、41375091和41405071)及中国气象局气候预测理论和应用创新团队共同资助
引用文本:
胡娅敏,王永光,王娟怀,汪明圣,罗晓玲,2017.登陆华南台风强度的前兆信号分析及预测[J].气象,43(10):1278-1286.
HU Yamin,WANG Yongguang,WANG Juanhuai,WANG Mingsheng,LUO Xiaoling,2017.Precursor Signal Analysis and Prediction for the Landfall Typhoon Intensity over South China[J].Meteor Mon,43(10):1278-1286.