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文章摘要
引用本文:宋文玲,袁媛.2017.强厄尔尼诺背景下2015/2016年冬季气候预测的不确定性分析.气象,43(10):1249-1258.
强厄尔尼诺背景下2015/2016年冬季气候预测的不确定性分析
Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Prediction for the 2015/2016 Winter Under the Background of Super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o Event
投稿时间:2017-01-09  最后修改时间:2017-04-28
DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.10.009
中文关键词: 冬季预测,厄尔尼诺事件,冬季风,北极海冰,北极涛动
英文关键词: prediction of winter climate, El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event, East Aisan winter monsoon, Arctic sea ice, Arctic oscillation
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406024)资助
作者单位
宋文玲 国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室北京 100081 
袁媛 国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室北京 100081 
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中文摘要:
      2015/2016年冬季的主要气候特征为:(1)全国大部地区气温接近常年,季内,气温阶段性起伏波动大,极端天气气候事件频发;(2)全国平均降水量较常年明显偏多,为1951年以来历史同期最多,多雨带主要位于长江以南及北方大部地区;(3)东亚冬季风阶段性变化明显,前弱后强。综合考虑年代际背景、超强厄尔尼诺事件、秋季北极海冰偏少等因素的影响以及数值模式的预测结果,预测2015/2016年冬季全国气温总体以偏暖为主与实况较为一致;冬季我国东北、华北北部、新疆东北部、长江以南大部降水偏多和长江黄河之间降水偏少的预测正确;主要气象灾害与衍生灾害的预测与实况基本一致,预测取得了较好的服务效果。但对冬季我国低温区域的预测较实况偏小,尤其对内蒙古中西部、西北地区东北部、西南东南部和华南南部气温偏低及2016年1月偏冷的情况估计不足。虽然均是在强厄尔尼诺背景下,1982/1983年及1997/1998年和2015/2016年冬季气候仍存在较大差异。通过对强厄尔尼诺影响的不确定性分析,2015/2016年冬季没有准确把握冬季风后期偏强的程度,对北极涛动季节内变化特征的预测分析能力有限,对海冰影响冬季环流的研究还需进一步加强。
英文摘要:
      There are three main characteristics of the 2015/2016 winter climate. (1) Temperatures were near normal over most parts of China. However, the temperature fluctuated greatly in the season, and extreme temperature events occurred frequently. (2) The area mean precipitation was above normal in China, which ranked the first since 1951. There were two main rainfall belts over southern China and northern China, respectively. (3) The East Asian winter monsoon varied greatly within the season, which was weak in the earlier stage but strong in the later period. Considering the influence of interdecadal warming background, super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event and less Arctic sea ice in autumn, as well as prediction results of numerical models, we predicted the winter temperature of 2015/2016 was above normal in most China, which was similar to the actual situation. The prediction of more precipitation in Northeast China, northern part of North China, northeastern Xinjiang and south of the Yangtze River Valley, as well as the prediction of less precipitation in central China were correct. Predicton of the main meteorological disasters and derivative disasters was also consistent with the actual situation. However, the prediction of areas with lower temperature was smaller. We failed to predict the below normal temperature in mid western Inner Mongolia, northeastern part of Northwest China, southeastern part of Southwest China, and southern part of South China, especially in January 2016. Although under the same background of strong El Ni〖AKn~D〗o, the climate anomaly in the 2015/2016 winter was different from those of the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 winters. We have analyzed the uncertainty of the influence of El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event. The predictive and analytical capabilities of winter monsoon, interseasonal variation of the Arctic oscillation, and the impact of Arctic sea ice on the winter circulation still need to be further strengthened.
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