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气象:2017,43(7):856-862
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我国近海洋面10 m风速集合预报客观订正方
胡海川1,黄彬1,魏晓琳2
(1 国家气象中心,北京 100081 2 深圳市气象局,深圳 518040)
Objective Correction Method of Ensemble Forecast of 10 m Winds on Chinese Offshore
HU Haichuan1,HUANG Bin1,WEI Xiaolin2
(1 National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 2 Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau, Shenzhen 518040)
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投稿时间:2016-04-29    修订日期:2017-07-06
中文摘要: 利用2013—2015年ECMWF集合预报10 m风场及我国沿岸和近海88个代表站点风速实况观测,建立基于ECMWF集合预报众数的我国近海洋面10 m风速客观订正方法。集合预报众数正确率及稳定性高于中值及平均值,因此基于集合预报众数,综合考虑历史数据的预报概率及集合预报各个成员的分布情况进行客观订正,可以提高订正效果。订正后的6~7级、8~9级风速偏小的误差及TS评分有明显改进,其中72~120 h预报时效的8~9级风速预报的TS评分由0.04增加到0.44,能够有效提高中长期时效大量级风速的预报能力。订正的风速产品对于我国近海冷空气及台风大风天气过程有较好的预报效果。
Abstract:An objective correction method is established by making use of ensemble forecast of 10 m wind speed from 2013 to 2015 and wind speed observation from 88 representative stations. The accuracy and stability of the mode are equal or greater than the average values. Thus fully considering the prediction probability of historical data and collecting the distribution of each member of ensemble forecasts could improve the correction effect. Small error and TS score are significantly improved by correction. Specifically, TS score of 8-9 magnitude of wind speed forecast within 72-120 h lead time increases from 0.04 to 0.44, which can effectively promote the forecasting ability of medium and long term timeliness and high volume of wind speed. The corrected forecasts could bring good effectiveness for cold air and typhoon weather in the offshore areas of China.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206001)和环渤海区域科技协同创新基金(QYXM2016)共同资助
引用文本:
胡海川,黄彬,魏晓琳,2017.我国近海洋面10 m风速集合预报客观订正方[J].气象,43(7):856-862.
HU Haichuan,HUANG Bin,WEI Xiaolin,2017.Objective Correction Method of Ensemble Forecast of 10 m Winds on Chinese Offshore[J].METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY,43(7):856-862.