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气象:2017,43(7):831-844
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淮河流域2016年汛期洪水预报试验
包红军1,张珂2,3,魏丽1,李致家2,宗志平1,谌芸1,狄靖月1,栾承梅4,刘开磊5,曹勇1
(1 国家气象中心,北京 100081 2 河海大学水文水资源学院,南京 210098 3 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京 210098 4 江苏省水文水资源勘测局,南京 210029 5 淮河水利委员会水文局(信息中心),蚌埠 233001)
Test on Flood Forecasts for Huaihe River in the 2016 Flood Season
BAO Hongjun1,ZHANG Ke2,3,WEI Li1,LI Zhijia2,ZONG Zhiping1,CHEN Yun1,DI Jingyue1,LUAN Chengmei4,LIU Kailei5,CAO Yong1
(1 National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 2 College of Hydrology and Water Recourses, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098 3 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098 4 Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210029 5 Bureau of Hydrology, Huaihe Water Conservancy Committee, Bengbu 233001)
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投稿时间:2016-10-31    修订日期:2017-05-24
中文摘要: 预报大流域降雨径流与洪水是非常复杂的预报难题。本研究建立气象水文耦合预报模型对复杂大流域的洪水预报进行预报试验。模型采用中央气象台格点化降水预报产品作为预见期内降水,驱动水文水动力学耦合模型进行洪水预报。选择新安江水文模型用于流域降雨径流模拟,基于扩散波与柱蓄和楔蓄理论建立Muskingum Cunge水位流量演算模型进行具有行蓄洪区的复杂河系洪水预报。以淮河鲁台子站以上流域2016年汛期洪水为例,将构建的气象水文耦合预报模型进行洪水预报试验。结果表明,模型取得了较好的预报精度,应用格点化降水预报产品考虑预见期内降水预报的洪水预报对于不考虑预见期降水预报,洪水预报预见期得到一定的有效延长,对同类流域预报有一定的借鉴意义。
Abstract:Rainfall runoff simulation and flood forecasting of large river basins is a complex prediction problem. An integrated hydro meteorological forecast model is developed for flood forecast test of complex river basins. Grid based quantitative precipitation forecast products of National Meteorological Centre are applied as precipitation of lead time period, and the Xin′anjiang hydrological model is used for rainfall runoff process simulation. The Muskingum Cunge model, based on diffusion, columbar storage and wedge storage theory, is introduced for channel water level and discharge forecasting. For the test case of the upper reaches of the Lutaizi Station of the Huaihe River in flood season of 2016, the developed hydro meteorological forecast model of complex river basins is applied in flood forecast test. The results show that the developed model can perform well. Compared with no considering the precipitation in lead time period, the flood forecast lead time can be increased obviously. The developed model has certain reference significance for flood forecasting over similar basins.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51509043)、国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402702、2016YFC0402701和2016YFC0402705)、中国气象局首批青年英才计划“中小河流洪水气象预警关键技术研究”(2014—2017)、国家气象中心水文气象预报团队项目、中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项[YBGJXM(2017)06]、中国气象局气象预报预测业务与科研结合专项(CMAHX20160601)和中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2017 087)共同资助
引用文本:
包红军,张珂,魏丽,李致家,宗志平,谌芸,狄靖月,栾承梅,刘开磊,曹勇,2017.淮河流域2016年汛期洪水预报试验[J].气象,43(7):831-844.
BAO Hongjun,ZHANG Ke,WEI Li,LI Zhijia,ZONG Zhiping,CHEN Yun,DI Jingyue,LUAN Chengmei,LIU Kailei,CAO Yong,2017.Test on Flood Forecasts for Huaihe River in the 2016 Flood Season[J].METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY,43(7):831-844.