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气象:2017,43(6):716-723
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我国台风灾害年景预评估方法初探
尹宜舟1,李焕连2
(1 国家气候中心,北京 100081 2 中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京 100081)
Preliminary Study on Pre Evaluation Method of Typhoon Disaster in China
YIN Yizhou1,LI Huanlian2
(1 National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081 2 China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2016-05-26    修订日期:2017-04-11
中文摘要: 本文以热带气旋年潜在影响力指数(yearly tropical cyclone potential impact index,YTCPI)为纽带,初步探讨了我国台风灾害年景预评估方法,预评估检验结果显示,1991—2008年,除1996、1997和2004年预估年景偏轻外,其他年份均与实际年景相一致;2009—2013年独立样本预估结果显示,只有2009年没有预估正确;总体上可以看出借助YTCPI指数来预评估台风灾害年景是可行的。
Abstract:In this paper, the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact index (YTCPI) is used as the link to preliminarily study the method of typhoon pre evaluation for annual disaster situation in China. The results of pre evaluation test show that, from 1991 to 2008, the pre evaluation of typhoon disaster for 1996, 1997 and 2004 was lower than the facts, and for other years matched with the actual situation well. The test results of independent samples in 2009-2013 show that, only in 2009 the pre evaluation was not correct. In general, it’s feasible to pre evaluate the annual disaster situation of typhoon with YTCPI index.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P456    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41505060)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506002)和中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201722)共同资助
引用文本:
尹宜舟,李焕连.我国台风灾害年景预评估方法初探[J].气象,2017,43(6):716-723.
YIN Yizhou,LI Huanlian.Preliminary Study on Pre Evaluation Method of Typhoon Disaster in China[J].METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY,2017,43(6):716-723.