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气象:2017,43(5):628-633
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2016年12月至2017年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验
张峰
(国家气象中心, 北京 100081)
Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecast by T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from December 2016 to February 2017
ZHANG Feng
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2017-03-24    修订日期:2017-04-18
中文摘要: 对2016年12月至2017年2月T639、ECMWF及日本(文中简称JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了分析和检验。结果表明:3个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变均具有较好的预报性能,其中ECMWF模式预报效果最好。3个模式对850 hPa温度的转折性变化趋势均有较好的预报能力,对南方地区温度变化的预报能力优于北方地区;T639模式对北方地区的温度预报存在整体偏低的误差,而JP模式对南方地区的温度预报整体偏高,ECMWF预报综合效果最好。对于2017年2月影响全国的寒潮天气过程中地面冷高压的预报,T639模式对地面冷高压中心强度的预报效果优于ECMWF和JP模式,ECMWF模式对高压中心位置预报较为准确,T639和JP模式对高压中心位置预报均存在明显偏差。
Abstract:The performance of medium range forecast is verified and compared for the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan from December 2016 to February 2017. The results show that all of the three models can predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas well, of which ECMWF model performs the best. The three models perform well in predicting the transitions of temperature at 850 hPa, as they all have smaller biases for southern China than for northern China. Temperature forecasts for northern China, produced by T639 model are lower while temperatures forecasted by Japan model for southern China are higher, and ECMWF model performs better than the other two models in general. For the surface high pressure forecasting during the nationwide cold wave process in February 2017, T639 model performs better in forecasting the intensity of cold high pressure than ECMWF and Japan models. ECMWF model does well in forecasting the location of high center, while T639 and Japan models produce obvious bias.
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张峰,2017.2016年12月至2017年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,43(5):628-633.
ZHANG Feng,2017.Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecast by T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from December 2016 to February 2017[J].Meteor Mon,43(5):628-633.