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气象:2011,37(1):1-13
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气象预报的方法与不确定性
穆穆1,2, 陈博宇1,3, 周菲凡4, 余堰山2
(1.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029;2.中国科学院海洋研究所海洋环流与波动重点实验室, 青岛 266071;3.中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049;4.中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理和强风暴实验室, 北京 100029)
Methods and Uncertainties of Meteorological Forecast
MU Mu1,2, CHEN Boyu1,3, ZHOU Feifan4, YU Yanshan2
(1.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,  Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;2.Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071;3.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;4.Laboratory of CloudPrecipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,  Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029)
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本文已被:浏览 1766次   下载 1794
投稿时间:2010-07-01    修订日期:2010-08-21
中文摘要: 根据历史上有关气象的文字记载,结合大气科学发展的历史和现状,以深入浅出的方式回顾了气象预报制作方法的变更与发展,概述了当前业务预报的水平和相关研究的主要进展。针对数值预报,讨论了导致气象预报结果不确定性的主要原因,并通过介绍集合预报,对公众应当如何理解和使用预报产品提出了看法。
Abstract:The variation and improvement of meteorological forecast method are reviewed in a simple and explicit way, based on historical records on meteorological phenomena and a brief development history and status of atmospheric sciences. The present operational prediction skill and main advancements of the relevant researches are summarized as well. Uncertainties in the result of meteorological forecast are discussed from the perspective of numerical forecasting. Moreover, the way for public to understand and utilize ensemble forecast products is also presented by explaining the principles of ensemble forecast in detail.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200706001)资助
引用文本:
穆穆,陈博宇,周菲凡,余堰山,2011.气象预报的方法与不确定性[J].气象,37(1):1-13.
MU Mu,CHEN Boyu,ZHOU Feifan,YU Yanshan,2011.Methods and Uncertainties of Meteorological Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,37(1):1-13.