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基于灰关联熵的杭州市人体舒适度影响因素分析
高超1, 申双和1, 蒋烨林2, 彭擎2
(1.南京信息工程大学;2.南京信息工程大学应用气象学院)
Analysis of factors affecting human comfort in Hangzhou based on Grey Relational Entropy
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投稿时间:2018-10-03    修订日期:2019-03-12
中文摘要: 城市的热环境与城市因子之间有某种必然的联系,为了研究二者之间的关系,本文以人体舒适度为研究视角,分析影响人体舒适度变化的主要城市因子。该研究首先采用了热气候指数法计算1980—2017年杭州夏季高温不舒适日数,并统计其变化趋势。运用灰联熵分析模型,确立各影响因子的权重,分析各个城市化因子与高温不舒适日数之间的相互关系。结果表明:(1)38年来,杭州高温不舒适日数的平均为30.6d,气候倾向率为6.87d/10a(p<0.01),呈现显著上升趋势。年代际变化特征表明,高温不舒适日数主要集中在7、8月份,并且1992—1993年高温不舒适日数发生由少到多的突变。(2)灰关联熵结果显示,在十二个指标因子中,第二产业占地区生产总值比重所占权重最大(W2=0.096),公路客运量所占权重其次(W11=0.094,所占权重最小的是人口密度(W1=0.076)。(3)公路客运量和第二产业占地区生产总值比重与高温不舒适日数的关联度均成强度相关联,而园林绿地面积,建成区绿化覆盖面积,人口密度等剩下的十个因子均成中度相关联。综上所述,灰色关联熵分析模型能够有效分析影响高温不舒适日数的主要城市因子,在实际应用中具有一定价值。
Abstract:There is an inevitable relationship between urban thermal environment and urban factors, in order to study the relationship between the two. From the perspective of human comfort, this paper analyzes the main urban factors that affect the comfort degree of human body. In this study, the uncomfortable days of summer high temperature in Hangzhou from 1980 to 2017 were calculated by using the thermal climate index method, and the change trend was also analyzed. The weight of each influencing factor is established by using grey entropy analysis model, and the relationship between Urbanization Factors and high temperature uncomfortable days is analyzed. The results showed that: (1) In the past 38 years, the average days of high temperature discomfort in Hangzhou were 30.6 days, and the climate tendency rate was 6.87 days/10a (p < 0.01), showing a significant upward trend. The interdecadal variation showed that the days of high temperature discomfort mainly occurred in July and August, and the days of high temperature discomfort changed from less to more in 1992-1993. (2) The result of grey relational entropy shows that the proportion of secondary industry to GDP is the largest (W2 = 0.096), the weight of highway passenger volume is the second (W11 = 0.094), and the weight of population density is the smallest (W1 = 0.076). (3) Highway passenger volume and the proportion of secondary industry in GDP are strongly correlated with uncomfortable days of high temperature, while the remaining ten factors, such as garden green area, built-up area green coverage, population density, are moderately correlated. In summary, the grey relational entropy analysis model can effectively analyze the main urban factors affecting the high temperature uncomfortable days, and has a certain value in practical application.
文章编号:201810030429     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:中国气象局气候专项(20090035)资助
引用文本:
高超,申双和,蒋烨林,彭擎,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
GaoChao,ShenShuanghe,JiangYelin,PengQing,0.Analysis of factors affecting human comfort in Hangzhou based on Grey Relational Entropy[J].Meteor Mon,():-.