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浙江省近地面风速订正技术研究<sub>*</sub>
杨程1, 姜瑜君1, 康丽莉1, 余贞寿1, 王丽吉2
(1.浙江省气象科学研究所;2.浙江省网络信息中心)
Analysis on the Correction Technology of Near Ground Wind Speed in Zhejiang
YANG Cheng1, JIANG Yujun1, KANG Lili1, YU Zhenshou1, WANG Liji2
(1.Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Science;2.Network Information Center of Zhejiang Meteorological)
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投稿时间:2018-02-02    修订日期:2019-01-04
中文摘要: 利用偏最小二乘回归技术,将预报产品作为自变量,相应的自动气象站观测资料作为因变量,对2013年~2016年冬季浙江省中尺度区域模式预报近地面风速进行订正和评估。结果显示:订正前,预报风速绝对误差陆地上以1.5 m?s~1为主;沿海及海上大部分地区超过2 m?s~1;少数地区超过3m?s~1。订正后,陆地上大部分地区绝对误差小于1 m?s~1;浙东沿海地区风速约1~1.5 m?s~1,洋面整体订正后风速绝对误差约2 m?s~1。参照风速订正改善百分比可知,各地级市整体表现均不错,除舟山地区为49.9%,其他地区风速改善比例均超过50%。选取2017年1月20日浙江东北地区沿海大风过程分析发现订正后的风速与观测风速更为接近,在近岸站点中表现尤为明显,订正后的结果具有显著参考价值。
Abstract:Based on the partial least squares regression (PLS), the near ground wind speed predicted by ZHE~Jiang WRF ADAS Real~time Modeling System(ZJWARMS) is revised and evaluated in each winter form 2013 to 2016 in Zhejiang. The forecast product is used as the independent variable while the corresponding observational data of the automatic weather stations(AWSs) is used as the dependent variable in this research. The results showed that before the correction, absolute error of forecast wind speed is mainly 1.5 m?s~1 on the land, exceeded to 2 m?s~1 in most parts of the coastal and offshore areas, and a few areas up to 3m?s~1. After correction, the absolute error of forecast wind speed is less than 1 m?s~1 on most region of land, while the wind speed absolute error is about 1~1.5 m?s~1 in the eastern coastal of Zhejiang coastal area, and 2 m?s~1 over the ocean. According to the improved percentage of wind speed correction, it is indicated the performance of each local cities is good. In addition to the 49.9% in Zhoushan, the rate of wind speed improvement is more than 50% in other cities. Based on the analysis of the Gale Process in the northeastern coast of Zhejiang in January 20, 2017, it is found that the corrected wind speed is closer to the observed wind speed, especially in the near shore sites.
文章编号:201802020071     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:科技部国家基础研究发展规划项目
引用文本:
杨程,姜瑜君,康丽莉,余贞寿,王丽吉,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
YANG Cheng,JIANG Yujun,KANG Lili,YU Zhenshou,WANG Liji,0.Analysis on the Correction Technology of Near Ground Wind Speed in Zhejiang[J].Meteor Mon,():-.