###
DOI:
本文二维码信息
2018年春季气候异常及可能成因分析
王遵娅
(国家气候中心 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室)
Features and Possible Causes for the Climate Anomalies in Spring 2017
Wang Zungya
(National Climate Center)
摘要
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 40次   下载 13
投稿时间:2018-07-05    修订日期:2018-08-30
中文摘要: 2018年春季全国平均气温为1961年来最高,全国大部地区气温普遍偏高,尤其是长江以南及中国北方的中部区域偏高明显。全国平均降水量较常年略偏多,呈东部地区“南少北多”,华西降水偏多,而江南南部至华南、西北西部的部分地区降水偏少的分布特点。自北大西洋经欧亚大陆至东北亚中高纬上空的纬向波列及东亚低层维持的异常偏南气流是2018年春季中国气候异常的重要原因,且乌拉尔山低槽和华北高脊是产生影响的关键环流系统。亚洲中低纬上空均为异常高压脊控制,尤其是华北高脊的存在造成了2018年春季中国大部地区气温偏高。乌拉尔山低槽有利于冷空气爆发南下而华北高脊引导西北太平洋暖湿气流向西向北影响我国,冷暖气流交汇从而造成了长江以北地区及华西降水偏多,而南海至西太平洋上空的异常气旋则导致江南南部至华南少雨。另外,虽然2017/2018年冬季发生了一次弱的La Niña事件,并且2018年春季北大西洋三极子模态(NAT)呈较强的正位相,但其对中国2018年春季降水异常影响较小,而以大气环流的影响为主导。进一步分析发现,乌拉尔山低槽和华北高脊与中国春季降水具有很好的相关性,易于造成东部降水“南少北多”且华西多雨,尤其是华北高脊与长江以北地区的降水偏多显著相关。这两个关键环流系统间存在显著的负相关关系,且均与欧亚遥相关(EU)波列关系密切。同时,华北脊还与北极涛动(AO)正位相具有高相关。
Abstract:During March to May 2018, the mean temperature of China ranks the highest since 1961. The temperature is almost above normal in China, with the warmest regions being located to the south of the Yangtze River and the central part of northern China. The mean precipitation of China is a little above normal. For eastern China, the precipitation is more than normal to the north of Yangtze River while it is less than normal to the south. As for western China, the positive anomalies of precipitation are observed in most parts of Southwest China, southeastern part of Northwest China and northern and western Xinjiang, while the negative anomalies are mainly in southern Xinjiang, western Qinghai and northwest Gansu. The zonal wave train stretching from North Atlantic to Northeast Asia via Eurasia continent at the mid-high latitudes mainly contributes to the climate anomalies in China during March to May 2018, with the Ural trough and the Huabei ridge occupying the key circulations. The high pressure, especially the Huabei ridge controls the extensive regions over the mid-low latitudes of Asia to cause the higher-than-normal temperature over most China during March to May 2018. The Ural trough favors the southward outbreak of the cold air, while the Huabei ridge leads the moisture transporting westward and northward from the western Pacific. Then, the cold and dry air mass merges with the warm and moist one to form the above normal precipitation over the region to the north of the Yangtze River and West China. Meanwhile, the anomalous cyclonic circulation over the South China Sea and the tropical western Pacific contributes to the below normal precipitation from the region to the south of the Yangtze River to South China. Though a weak La Niña event occurs during the winter of 2017/2018 and the positive phase of North Atlantic Triple (NAT) mode persists during March to May 2018, they put limited impacts on the 2018’s spring rainfall anomalies in China but the circulations dominate. Further analyses present that, the intensity of the Ural trough and Huabei ridge has high correlations with the spring precipitation of China, favoring more-than-normal precipitation in West China and to the north of the Yangtze River but less-than-normal precipitation to the south. Significant negative correlation exists between the intensity of the two circulations and they are both closely connected with the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern. Moreover, the Huabei ridge is also highly correlated with the positive phase of AO.
文章编号:201807050299     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41675069)和国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0600701)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Wang Zungya National Climate Center wangzy@cma.gov.cn 
引用文本:
王遵娅,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Wang Zungya,0.Features and Possible Causes for the Climate Anomalies in Spring 2017[J].Meteor Mon,():-.