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一种区域降水过程综合强度评估方法的探索和应用
王莉萍, 王秀荣, 张立生, 张建忠, 王维国
(国家气象中心)
The exploration and application of the comprehensive strength evaluation method for regional precipitation process
Wang Liping, Wang Xunrong, Zhang Lisheng, Zhang Jianzhong, Wang Weiguo
(National meteorological center Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2017-02-14    修订日期:2018-02-11
中文摘要: 摘要:降水过程强度精细化定量评估是气象现代化业务服务的重要需求,也是暴雨灾害影响评估研究的关键环节。利用1961年以来国家站降水气象观测资料,以站点降水背景表征地域特征,通过定义单站和区域降水过程的起始和结束条件界定降水过程,提取了降水强度、持续时间、覆盖范围三个降水过程的评价指标,在并深度挖掘降水空间和时间尺度降水资料信息基础上,计算三个降水过程的评价指标。然后,基于百分位分布和概率统计,对降水过程三个评价指标进行的精细化指数划分,建立了降水过程综合强度评估模型。最终后将降水过程划分为极端、特强、强、较强、中等五个等级。文中应用案例对评估方法进行验证,结果显示对单站和区域降水过程综合强度等级评估方法合理,既能体现降水过程地域特征,又能表征降水过程的影响程度,具可操作性,能够直接应用于气象服务业务和暴雨灾害影响评估,也可为历史降水过程案例入库、灾情信息演变特征分析提供依据。
Abstract:Abstract: The fine quantitative evaluation of the precipitation process intensity is one of the important requirements in meteorological modernization business service and a key link in the rainstorm disaster impact assessment research. Using rainfall meteorological observation data from 2410 stations since 1951 and precipitation background to site characterization of regional characteristic, the beginning and end conditions of a single station and regional precipitation process is defined, three evaluation indexes of precipitation process are extracted, such as the rainfall intensity, duration and range. And the three evaluation indexes in the process of precipitation are calculated by depth of excavation space and time scale precipitation data information. And then, based on percentile distribution and probability statistics, the three evaluation indexes of the precipitation process has been doing fine index partition, the comprehensive strength evaluation model of precipitation process is established. Finally,the intensity of precipitation process could be divided into extreme, strong, strong, strong, medium five grades. Validated the application study of assessment method, the results show that single station and regional precipitation intensity grade evaluation method is reasonable, can not only reflect geographical features, but also characterize the effect of the precipitation process. This method has strong the maneuverability, can be directly applied to meteorological service business and storm disaster impact assessment, can also be used for the storage of history precipitation process case, to provide basis for the characteristics analysis of disaster information.
文章编号:201702140078     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:本文受中国气象局决策气象服务专项和国家气象中心预报员专项共同资助
引用文本:
王莉萍,王秀荣,张立生,张建忠,王维国,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Wang Liping,Wang Xunrong,Zhang Lisheng,Zhang Jianzhong,Wang Weiguo,0.The exploration and application of the comprehensive strength evaluation method for regional precipitation process[J].Meteor Mon,():-.