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华中区域空气质量数值预报系统评估及气溶胶辐射效应的模拟研究
刘琳, 白永清, 林春泽, 杨浩
(中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所)
Evaluation of Regional Air Quality Numerical Forecasting System in Central China and It''s Application for Aerosol Radiative Effects
LIU Lin, BAI Yongqing, LIN Chunze, YANG Hao
(Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research,Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration)
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投稿时间:2017-03-28    修订日期:2018-07-26
中文摘要: 基于多种检验指标对2015年6月-2016年2月华中区域空气质量数值预报系统的6种污染物(PM10、PM2.5、SO2、NO2、CO、O3)以及AQI指数的预报结果进行检验评估,在确保模拟效果的基础上,通过敏感性试验研究区域气溶胶对地面气象要素的影响,结果表明:华中区域空气质量数值预报系统对湖北省6种污染物以及AQI具有稳定和较好的预报效果。存在O3预报较实况偏高,预报误差较大的问题,后期将通过误差订正来减小误差。对比CUACE模式预报效果表明,24-48h的预报效果区域模式优于CUACE,72h两个模式预报效果相当。气溶胶对地面气象要素具有一定的影响,对2015年1月9-12日的模拟过程而言,气溶胶的总辐射效应使地表接收太阳辐射减少7.740 W/m2,2m气温降低0.162℃,行星边界层高度降低16.457m,相对湿度增加0.557%,10m风速减小0.011m/s,其中直接效应以及间接效应各有一部分贡献,气溶胶对白天地面气象要素的影响比夜间大。由于区域接受太阳辐射减小、气温降低、行星边界层高度降低、风速降低、湿度增加有利于气溶胶吸湿增长等条件不利于污染物扩散,污染物浓度不断累积升高又促使气象条件的上述变化,由此产生了气象条件与大气污染之间的双向反馈作用。
Abstract:Based on a variety of test indicators during June2015 to February2016, the six kinds of forecast pollutants (PM10、PM2.5、SO2、NO2、CO、O3) and the AQI index of Air Quality numerical forecasting system in Central China were verified. Then the Impacts of Aerosol radiation effect on ground meteorological factors was studied by sensitivity experiments. The results show that the regional air quality numerical forecasting system in Central China has stable and good forecasting effect on six pollutants and AQI in Hubei Province. There is a problem that the forecast error of O3 is large and forecast value is higher than the observed. The error will be reduced by the error correction In the future plan. Compared with the CUACE forecasting model, the 24-48h forecast effects are better than that of CUACE and 72h effects of the two models are similar. The aerosol radiation effect has affected the distribution of ground meteorological field to a certain extent. The total radiation effect of aerosols reduced the solar radiation by 7.740 W/m2 , 2m temperature decrease by 0.162 ℃,the PBLH decreased by 16.457m, the relative humidity increased by 0.557%, and the 10m wind speed decreased by 0.011m/s in this process. The effect of aerosols on meteorological elements in the daytime is greater than that of night. Due to the reduction of solar radiation, 2m temperature, boundary layer height, 10m wind speed and the increase of the humidity, the pollutants are not conducive to spread. The increase in the concentration of pollutants also contributes to the above-mentioned changes in meteorological conditions, resulting in a Bidirectional feedback between meteorological conditions and atmospheric pollution.
文章编号:201703280183     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0203304);湖北省气象局科技发展基金项目(2017C04);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41705034)
引用文本:
刘琳,白永清,林春泽,杨浩,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
LIU Lin,BAI Yongqing,LIN Chunze,YANG Hao,0.Evaluation of Regional Air Quality Numerical Forecasting System in Central China and It''s Application for Aerosol Radiative Effects[J].Meteor Mon,():-.