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基于葵花8卫星的上海市夏季对流初生预报研究
郭巍, 崔林丽, 顾问, 王超
(上海市气象科学研究所)
Summer Convective Initiation Forecasting in Shanghai Based on Himawari-8 Satellite
Guo Wei, Cui Linli, Gu Wen, Wang Chao
(Shanghai Institute of Meteorological Science,Shanghai)
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投稿时间:2017-08-07    修订日期:2018-05-08
中文摘要: 参考Mecikalski等提出的基于GOES系列卫星的对流初生预报方法,利用新一代静止气象卫星葵花-8通道特点针对上海市夏季对流天气特征建立了基于高时空分辨率的静止气象卫星数据的上海市对流初生判识及预报方法。利用该方法对上海市的一次对流初生个例进行了分析,并对2016年7-8月的12次对流初生事件进行了预报实验,结果表明:方法提取的各个指标能够很好地体现对流初生过程中云团的发展变化特征并能剔除掉成熟对流云团边缘像元的干扰;在12次对流初生事件中,成功地预报了其中的11次,预报时间较对流初生时间平均提前了约30分钟,但是对于局地弱对流过程该方法仍有一定的缺陷。
Abstract:Consulting the method presented by Mecikalski et al, which was based on GOES satellite data to forecast convective initiation (CI), a method for forecasting summer CI by using Himawari-8 satellite data in Shanghai was proposed. With this method, a specific convective weather event, occurred on 28th July, 2016 in Shanghai, is analyzed. And an experiment for forecasting 12 CI events in Shanghai during July and August in 2016 is implemented to validate the proposed method. The results show that the development of convective cloud can be well reflected by the indicators in the method, and the interference caused by the edges of mature convective cloud can be eliminated. Of the 12 CI events, 11 are forecasted and the average predicted time can be reached about 30minutes. However, CI forecasting maybe missed by this method if the convection is weak.
文章编号:201708070372     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:华东区域气象科技协同创新基金合作项目《泛长三角地区对流性天气发生发展监测分析技术研究》(QYHZ201611)
引用文本:
郭巍,崔林丽,顾问,王超,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Guo Wei,Cui Linli,Gu Wen,Wang Chao,0.Summer Convective Initiation Forecasting in Shanghai Based on Himawari-8 Satellite[J].Meteor Mon,():-.