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厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜与淮河流域汛期降水年际关系的稳定性分析
罗连升1, 徐敏1, 梁树献2
(1.安徽省气候中心;2.淮河水利委员会)
The stability analysis of the interannual Relationship between El Ni?o /La Ni?a and the Summer Rainfall over Huaihe River Basin
Luo Liansheng、1, Xu Min1, Liang Shuxian2
(1.Anhui Climate Center;2.Huaihe River Commission,Minister of Water Resources)
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投稿时间:2017-06-22    修订日期:2018-05-09
中文摘要: 根据1961-2015年淮河流域170站月降水资料、NCEP再分析资料和ERSST海温资料,采用滑动相关、合成分析等方法来探讨厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜与淮河流域汛期降水年际关系的稳定性。结果表明:厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜与淮河流域汛期降水的年际关系存在不稳定性,两者11年滑动相关在1979年出现一次突变,1961-1979年两者为明显的负相关,1980-1992年为正常阶段,1993-2015年为明显的正相关。文中主要讨论两个明显相关时段厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜对淮河流域降水的影响。1961-1979年时段和1993-2015年时段厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜对淮河流域夏季降水的影响是相反的,而且1993-2015年厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜对淮河流域汛期降水预测的指示意义不如1961-1979年时段。厄尔尼诺事件对淮河流域降水的影响较为明显,而拉尼娜的影响不明显,两者的影响表现出不对称的特点。1961-1979年期间厄尔尼诺发展(衰减)年夏季亚洲大气环流配置有利于南北气流在淮河流域上空汇合(辐散),使得流域降水偏多(偏少),而1993-2015年厄尔尼诺事件则相反。
Abstract:Based on the monthly rainfall of 170 stations over Huaihe River Basin, NCEP reanalysis data and ERSST sea surface temperature data, the stability of the variation characteristics of the relationship between El Ni?o/La Ni?a and the summer rainfall over Huaihe River Basin is studied by using sliding correlation, composition etc. It shows that the relationship between El Ni?o/La Ni?a and the summer rainfall over Huaihe River Basin is not stable, the 11 years slide correlation probably mutates in 1979.It is significant negative correlation between El Ni?o/La Ni?a and the summer rainfall over Huaihe River Basin during 1961-1979, and it is normal correlation during 1980-1992, but it is significant positive values during 1993-2015. The influence of El Ni?o/La Ni?a on the precipitation over the Huaihe river basin during two obvious correlation periods is mainly discussed. The influence of El Ni?o/La Ni?a on the precipitation over the Huaihe river basin during 1961-1979 and 1993-2015 is on the opposite. And the El Ni?o/La Ni?a events during 1993-2015 as a predictor of the summer precipitation over the Huaihe River basin is weaker than the El Ni?o/La Ni?a events during 1961-1979. The influence of El Ni?o events on the precipitation over Huaihe river basin is obvious, but the influence of La Ni?a events is not obvious, and the influence of both are asymmetrical. The distribution of Asian atmospheric circulation in El Ni?o developing(decaying) summer during 1961-1979 is conductive to the north and south air convergence(divergence) over the Huaihe River Basin, which make the precipitation over the basin is more(less) than normal. While the El Ni?o events is on the opposite during 1993-2015.
文章编号:201706220313     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:公益性行业专项“基于陆面水文耦合模式的淮河流域旱涝季节预测方法”(201406021),国家自然科学基金项目“基于相似年加权的中国夏季降水多模式集合预报及其误差解析”(41605068),淮河流域气象开放研究基金项目“ENSO与淮河流域夏季降水年际变化关系研究”(HRM201608),中央引导地方科技发展专项(ZY18C12)
引用文本:
罗连升,徐敏,梁树献,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Luo Liansheng、,Xu Min,Liang Shuxian,0.The stability analysis of the interannual Relationship between El Ni?o /La Ni?a and the Summer Rainfall over Huaihe River Basin[J].Meteor Mon,():-.